Road freight market: analysis and development forecasts. Groupage cargo transportation: situation and prospects Situation in the transport services market

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The increase in freight traffic in the Chinese direction is accompanied by significant changes in delivery routes, the development of rail transport, and the launch of regular container trains. The most dynamic in 2017-2018 railway transportation of goods through border crossings grew. At the same time, growth rates of over 40% were recorded in 2017 on the Far Eastern Railway (Far Eastern Railway). Railway communication in the Far East is currently carried out with China ...

The last few years have seen a dynamic growth in export and import cargo flows of the Russian Federation in the Chinese direction. In just 3 years, the volume of traffic between Russia and China increased by 26.6% and amounted to 131.5 million tons. Today, China accounts for 13.2% of Russian exports (in tons) and 7.8% of imports (excluding Kazakhstan and the Republic Belarus). Over 92% of mutual cargo turnover is formed by ...

In the past few years, the Chinese express delivery market has shown strong growth rates. In 2014, China for the first time took the leading position in the world in the number of shipments carried out in express mode, overtaking the United States. At the same time, the value of this segment of the TLU market amounted to US $ 29.22 billion. According to the State Post Bureau (SPB), in 2015 the proceeds of ...

The growth of the 3PL services segment and the increasing role of logistics providers in the Chinese TLU market over the past decade is largely the result of government policy and reflects the trend of companies moving to outsourcing logistics operations, reducing logistics costs while focusing on key businesses. M.A.Research continues to publish a series of articles by Lyudmila Simonova, managing partner of the agency, on the transport and logistics services market in China, ...

MAResearch begins publishing a series of articles by Lyudmila Simonova, managing partner of the agency, on the Chinese transport and logistics services market, which presents an analysis of the logistics outsourcing market, segments of 3PL services and express delivery, as well as Russian transportation in the Chinese direction, including new routes and services and transit transportation. The articles have been prepared as part of the annual research "Logistic outsourcing market. Results of 2017-2018 and forecast up to ...

As part of the annual research of the market of transport and logistics services ("The market of logistics outsourcing. Results of 2017-2018 and forecast until 2022"), the analytical agency M.A.Research summed up the work of companies in the segment of 3LP services in 2017-2018. According to M.A.Research, in 2017 the total revenue in rubles of the leading logistics companies (Russian and foreign, included in the TOP-37) increased by 11.8%, to 175 billion ...

As part of the annual research “Market of logistics outsourcing. Results of 2017-2018 and forecast until 2022 " specialists of the M.A.Research agency analyzed the current situation and development prospects of the global and Russian market of transport and logistics services (TRL). According to M.A. Research, the total volume of the Russian TLU market in 2018 will amount to RUB 3,567 billion, the nominal growth rate will decrease to 6.6%. Data for January-October ...

The research "Market of logistics outsourcing: results of 2017-2018 and forecast until 2022" is devoted to the analysis of the latest trends and prospects for the development of the market of transport and logistics services (TLU). The paper provides a detailed overview of the situation in the global and Russian markets of logistics outsourcing, provides the most important indicators of the industry in 2017-2018. and forecast of the development of the main segments of the TLU market until 2022.

New market research of logistics outsourcing

The specialists of M.A.Research agency have prepared an update of the annual research of the logistics outsourcing market. The study is comprehensive and contains a detailed analysis of the development of the main segments of the transport and logistics services market in 2016-2017. and forecast until 2020. The paper provides estimates of the volume of the logistics market in physical and value terms, including the segments of 2PL and 3PL services. The analysis of the competitive environment, financial results of the work of Russian and foreign transport and logistics companies in 2016 is presented.

The market for the transportation of oversized and heavy cargo: trends and prospects

The article was prepared based on the materials of the speech by Lyudmila Simonova, Managing Partner of IA MAResearch, at BREAKBULK RUSSIA 2018, April 17, 2018, Moscow, Crocus-Expo According to MAResearch, in 2017, after three years of recession, the Russian market for transportation of oversized and heavy cargo (KTG) showed an increase in comparable prices by 1.6%. In nominal terms, the KTG market grew by 6.3%, and its ...

The share of TOP-15 road carriers in the value of the market exceeded 15%

Various types of companies operate on the road freight market - from global transport and logistics holdings to local road transport companies. Freight forwarding companies prevail among large and medium-sized operators; the share of players with foreign ownership reaches 10% in this group. The number of "clean" carriers or forwarders is insignificant; as a rule, market participants combine both of these functions in their activities.

The share of groupage cargo in the structure of the road transportation market in 2017 will reach 20.7%

According to MAResearch estimates, bulk cargo dominates in the structure of cargo transported by road in all sectors of the economy (in tons) - 75% in 2016. The overwhelming part of bulk cargo (primarily construction materials, products of the mining industry and agriculture) is transported by its own transport enterprises of all sectors of the economy, while the share of commercial transportation does not exceed 5%.

In 2017, the road freight market will increase by 9.6%

Within the framework of the annual research of the market of transport and logistics services ("The market of logistics outsourcing. Results of 2016-2017 and forecast until 2020"), the analytical agency M.A.Research summed up the work of companies in the segment of road cargo transportation. In 2016, for the first time since 2013, there was a positive trend in the road freight market: traffic volumes both in domestic and international traffic increased. In turn,…

About 72% of the turnover of 3PL-operators in Russia is provided by operations for the transportation and forwarding of goods

According to M.A.Research, in 2016 the volume of the 3PL services market grew by 8%, reaching 189 billion rubles. About 72% of the turnover of logistics operators was provided by operations for the transportation and forwarding of goods (own and external transport), 28% accounted for segments of warehouse and management services, including supply chain management. Maximum customer focus, offering new products and services aimed at ...

The volume of the express delivery market in 2016 grew by 11.8%

As part of the next research of the market of transport and logistics services ("The market of logistics outsourcing. Results of 2016-2017 and forecast until 2020", released in early November 2017), the analytical agency MAResearch summed up the work of companies in the segment of express delivery in 2016 year. According to M.A.Research, in 2016 the volume of the express delivery market increased by 11.8%, exceeding RUB 57.8 billion. On the background…

Speech by Lyudmila Simonova at ShippingRu 2017

February 28, 2017 in Moscow with the information support of the research agency M.A. Research successfully hosted the International Conference "ShippingRu 2017". Lyudmila Simonova, Managing Partner of M.A. Research. In her report, Ms Simonova presented the results of the development of the maritime transport and stevedoring services market in 2016 and the assessments for 2017, focusing on ...

Combining DPD and SPSR Express will create the largest player in the express delivery market

The merger of SPSR and DPD could lead to the emergence of a new leader in the express delivery market. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2017. In 2016, the revenues of both companies grew by more than 16%, which is three times higher than the market average. The main driver of growth is online trading. According to M.A.Research, the total share of DPD and SPSR Express in the value ...

On October 6, 2016, within the framework of the III International Business Conference “Problems and Prospects of Cargo Transportation Security”, a presentation of the results of the study “Logistics Outsourcing Market” prepared by the agency M.A.Research took place. With a report "Modern trends in the development of the TLU market and forecast until 2019" Lyudmila Simonova, Ph.D., Managing Partner of M.A. Research.

In 2015, for the first time in 12 years of monitoring, absolutely opposite trends were observed in the development of individual segments of the transport and logistics services market. The ambiguity of the situation in the logistics outsourcing market is explained by the fact that different types of logistics activities have demonstrated different degrees of resilience in relation to the negative impact of the crisis: a drop in investment and consumer demand, a "war of sanctions", a reduction in imports, a depreciation of the ruble, etc. According to MAResearch, In 2015, the warehouse services market in rubles shrank by almost 15%, which was determined by a decrease in ruble rental rates and the level of occupancy rates against the background of the commissioning of new warehouse facilities for commercial use.

Logistics outsourcing market

This research is devoted to the analysis of the latest trends and prospects for the development of the market of transport and logistics services (TLU). The paper provides a detailed overview of the situation in the global and Russian markets of logistics outsourcing, provides the most important indicators of the industry in 2015-2016. and the forecast for the development of the main segments of the TLU market until 2019.

The declared rental rates for high-quality refrigerated warehouses in the Rostov Region and Krasnodar Territory roughly correspond to the metropolitan level. This situation is explained by a significant decrease in tariffs in the Moscow region at the beginning of 2015, which was caused by an increase in vacancy in the high-quality segment. The imbalances in the capital market arose as a result of the record commissioning of warehouse space in the Moscow region in 2014, which, according to a study by M.A. Research "The market of warehouse services in the Southern Federal District", amounted to over 1.5 million sq. m of new facilities, including a significant number of refrigerated warehouses. At the same time, the volume of absorption decreased under the influence of the crisis. At the same time, in the Rostov Region and Krasnodar Territory, rental rates remained at the same level, and even slightly increased at some properties, which led to the equalization of metropolitan and local rates.

On June 2-3, 2016, the 19th international conference "TransBaltica 2016" was held in Riga and Ventspils, bringing together experts and players from the transport industry from Russia, Belarus and the Baltic countries. Lyudmila Simonova took an active part in the conference, speaking at the meeting in Riga with a report on the topic “The market of transport and logistics services. Impact of sanctions and recession ”. As Lyudmila Simonova noted, the transport industry in Russia is going through difficult times, nevertheless, in conditions of intense competition, the style of work and methods of Russian transport and logistics companies are changing. The need to reduce costs forces them to adapt flexibly to new conditions, offering innovative solutions and the latest technologies, improving customer service. Ms Simonova's presentation can be downloaded in the Analytics section.

Warehouses with refrigerated chambers are still the least studied segment of the commercial warehouse real estate market, since its reliable analysis requires primary information on the technical parameters and operational capabilities of facilities. The information presented in this article on the market of refrigerated warehouse services in the Krasnodar Territory and the Rostov Region was obtained as a result of an audit conducted by experts from the M.A. Research during personal visits to 20 warehouse facilities, as well as interviews with senior executives of the owner companies, completing a detailed questionnaire (“mystery shopping” method). The collected data made it possible to conduct a detailed analysis of the market, including the ratio of supply and demand, the structure of the cold storage park, the level of vacancy and declared rental rates, etc. The results of the audit of the largest commercial warehouses in these regions, as well as an analysis of the general situation on the market of high-quality warehouses in the South of Russia were included in the report "The warehouse services market of the Southern Federal District".

The analytical review "The warehouse services market in the Southern Federal District" was prepared based on the results of an audit of multi-temperature and refrigerated terminals in the Rostov Region and Krasnodar Territory, carried out at the end of 2015. The collected data made it possible to conduct a detailed analysis of the market, including the ratio of supply and demand, the structure of the cold storage park, the level of vacancy and declared rental rates, etc. In addition, the report contains an analysis of the situation on the market for dry warehouses of categories A and B in the Rostov region and Krasnodar Territory, as well as a brief overview of the market for high-quality terminals in the Volgograd and Astrakhan regions (with a description of the largest warehouse facilities, including refrigerated warehouses).

Automobile cargo transportation is the most affected segment of the TPP market from economic sanctions and recession. By the end of 2015, it is expected that the volume of commercial transportations by road will decrease by 20%, and cargo turnover - by 10%.

The analysis of the Russian market for the transportation of groupage cargo is complicated by the fact that market players are not inclined to disclose the details of their activities: when describing the general situation, they prefer to keep silent about specific numbers. However, industry experts, assessing the situation on the market in different ways, agree on one thing - there is no need to expect a rapid growth of the segment yet.

At the beginning of the year, the consulting company Strategy Partners Group conducted a comparative analysis of the data, using the indicators of the countries in which the relevant statistics are kept. In particular, we used data from the United States, as a country comparable to Russia in terms of delivery distance, and Poland, where the level of development of the segment is comparable to the domestic one. Taking into account the fact that the overall logistics market in our country is estimated at 260 billion rubles, that is, 12.7% of the total volume of the transport and logistics services market, the segment of groupage cargo transportation was estimated by experts from Strategy Partners Group at 72 billion rubles.

There are other, less optimistic assessments of the current market situation. In particular, Viktor Bortsov, head of the Russian Railways Department, estimates the segment at no more than 58-60 billion rubles. This opinion is supported by other companies operating in the segment of groupage cargo delivery.

As for the largest players, the segment leader is Zheldorexpedition (whose share is about 15%). This is followed by "Business Lines" and PEC.

Today, the market for the transportation of groupage cargo is an ambiguous situation: the largest companies do not want to exchange information with colleagues, while the further development of the industry requires a productive dialogue from the players. In March, the Infranews portal took the first step towards overcoming this obstacle and carried it out. The speakers included representatives of the companies "Strategy Partners Group", "Business lines", "Russian Railways" and "Svetlana" -K. Among the guests were also representatives of Sberbank Leasing, Eximp Logistic, Baikal and STS Asia.

A positive outcome of this conference can be attributed at least to the fact that its participants were able to exchange views and confirm or refute the assessments of other industry representatives. Thus, the meeting participants unanimously agreed that the main market trend is a slight increase in freight traffic. The crisis is forcing companies to consider alternative methods of transportation, and motor transport, although not the most budgetary, is the most convenient option in this case. Equally unambiguous was the opinion that it was impossible to consolidate the market: in the presence of clear leaders and many small companies, the formation of a monopolist is too unlikely.

According to experts, the segment of groupage cargo transportation will continue its inertial growth, reaching 80 billion rubles in the pessimistic scenario and 100 billion rubles in the optimistic scenario by 2020, while there will be significant changes in the supply structure with the strengthening of the positions of courier companies. The fact is that the main volume of the market falls on consumer goods. The 2000s were marked by a noticeable increase in consumer activity of the population, which naturally affected the volume of cargo transportation. In the current economic situation, one cannot expect a high demand for goods with high added value. The most promising in this light is the area of e-commerce, but this will not have a significant impact on the entire market.

In business, they say that finance is the circulatory system of the entire company. Drawing an analogy, it can be argued that transport logistics performs the same function for the entire economy of the country.

Below are seven trends in transport logistics that should be noted when analyzing the period from mid-2014 to early 2016.

1. Drop in the level of containerization

Unfortunately, the Russian economy is slowing down containerization. The main share of containerized cargo is consumer goods and food products of foreign origin, the demand for which has dropped due to a decrease in the purchasing power of the population, the devaluation of the ruble and counter-sanctions of the Russian Federation. A container is the main unit of multimodal transportation (where, as a rule, more than 2 modes of transport are involved using TEU containers).

Global container traffic forecast, 2015-2019

Source: Alphaliner

Fig. 1 Forecast for container traffic on a global scale

Globally, the share of container traffic will only grow for the following reasons:

Single transport document. Single operator. When interacting with the multimodal transport operator, the cargo owner must have only one document. The rest of the relationship with the subcontractors will be taken care of directly by the operator.
Cooperation and development of all participants (subcontractors). Electronic data interchange. In order for a chain of several transport nodes to work without failures, all its participants must have an appropriate level of development of not only transport, but also information infrastructure.
Price / time flexibility... This reason gives rise to two important conclusions: firstly, dependence on one type of transport disappears, and, secondly, logistics companies are diversifying their client bases.

2. Market consolidation

The situation is now not very favorable for market participants, primarily for logistics companies. The trend has been the same since about the third quarter of 2014: the “collapse” of the market. That is, after the economic sanctions came into force, the market began to fall. If at the end of 2014 the downward movement was weakly traced, then by the second quarter of 2015 the logistics services market fell very seriously.

Dynamics of freight turnover and the volume of transported goods in 2010-2015 (billion t-km, million tons)

Source: Rosstat

Fig. 2 Dynamics of freight turnover and the volume of transported goods

If earlier the business did not want, for some reason, to work with small and medium operators of the logistics market directly (the most common reasons: unacceptable conditions for pricing small parties, payment conditions, lack of an individual approach), then during the crisis, the cost advantage became obvious when working without additional chain links, albeit with a loss of comfort for a number of conditions. Almost all small companies that were import-oriented have left the market. If we talk about European imports, then about 70% of the companies that transported 2-3 trucks of products per month left, because it became unprofitable to transport because of the high exchange rate, and also because 60% of the goods were banned.

3. Expectation of a sharp increase in the export of goods

After the notorious turn to the east took place, everyone hoped that the Southeast Asian market would replace the fallen European market. However, this has not happened yet. It's just that some of the companies that used to work with Europe began to buy Chinese goods from the same European manufacturers. These companies worked with the same operators and carriers. There were hopes that the low ruble exchange rate would stimulate Russian exports, but the problem is that we do not sell so many goods abroad. The basis of Russian exports in January-June 2015 to non-CIS countries was made up of fuel and energy products, the share of which in the commodity structure of exports to these countries amounted to 68.1% (in January-June 2014 - 75.3%), and we are not yet very competitive with other high-tech goods. According to the Federal Customs Service, Russia's exports in January-June 2015 amounted to 183.0 billion US dollars and compared with January-June 2014 decreased by 28.8%. At the same time, Russia's imports in January-June 2015 amounted to 87.7 billion US dollars and compared to January-June 2014 decreased by 39.5%.

4. Redistribution of traffic flows through the countries of the customs union

In principle, transport logistics cannot be considered separately from customs. A serious test for merchants was the order of the FCS No. 280 dated 16.02.2016, according to which the customs authorities adjust the customs value of imported goods to maximum values under various pretexts. When this order came into force, transport flows were redistributed towards Belarus and Kazakhstan, because it is almost impossible to compete on the customs price of these countries at the moment. Those. the cost of transport logistics is approximately the same everywhere, but due to savings on customs payments, it is more profitable to transport goods through the EurAsEC countries. As a result, the market for customs services in Russia is shrinking and competition is sharply increasing. Logistics companies are trying to retain at least their current customers. It becomes very difficult to develop new customers.

5. Transportation of groupage cargo

Due to the crisis, now not every company has the ability and need to collect a full container and transport it. Therefore, logistics companies, usually owning their own warehouses in Southeast Asia, began to offer their clients a groupage service. The essence of the service: the client brings his small cargo to the logistics warehouse, it is recorded, and then consolidated into a common batch (container) with the goods of other customers. If we further split the remaining transportation into individual customers, then we get an acceptable price of transportation costs for customers on the "door-to-door" delivery type.

6. Underdevelopment of 3PL and 4PL services in Russia

In the logistics business, the following designations of contractors providing services for manufacturers, suppliers and sellers of goods are adopted: 1PL, 2PL, 3PL, 4PL. At the same time, PL - party logistics (English) literally translates as "side of logistics". The numbers from one to four indicate how deeply a given company is involved in the supply chain.

1PL the level of involvement means that all the operations of picking up and delivering the cargo are performed by the company that owns the cargo. Taking into account globalization, outsourcing and offshoring of production, complication of distribution services, 1PL is becoming a thing of the past.
2PL a provider is a contracting company that provides services for the transportation of goods only in a certain section of the transport chain. In fact, this is just a transport company that the cargo owner hires, not wanting to buy his own cars, railway wagons, etc.
3PL- it is door-to-door (English "from door to door"). The logistician takes the goods, for example, in China, from the warehouse and grafts it to the client at the warehouse.
4PL- this is when a logistics company receives a request from a client for a certain service or product, finds manufacturers for him, checks them. And the client then chooses whom to work with. The logistician will come to an agreement with the manufacturer and will also take over the entire financial side of the issue in addition to managing 3PL contractors.

The situation with outsourcing in logistics is controversial. There are several tendencies: one by one, companies are trying to place procurement, consolidation, verification, delivery and distribution to warehouses into a single hand, i.e. stock transfer, i.e. purely 4PL logistics, which is now being taken over by Europe, and North America has long since switched over. This trend is towards exports.

Dynamics of the development of the market of transport and logistics services

2015 was a difficult year for the transport industry - sanctions, tax increases, a drop in foreign trade and consumer demand led to significant changes in the market - in the new economic conditions, companies had to choose not only new routes, but also alternative modes of transport. Today, most experts note that a serious crisis has already begun in the industry, and this is confirmed by statistics.

According to Rosstat, over the past four years, cargo turnover has remained practically unchanged, despite the positive dynamics of foreign trade. In January-December 2015, it even grew by 0.5% and amounted to 5089.6 billion ton-kilometers. However, behind these stable data lies a very unpleasant circumstance: during the same period, there was an annual decrease in the volume of transported goods. If in 2012 8.5 million tons were transported, then in 2015 less than 7.5 million tons. At the same time, the decline in comparison with last year amounted to more than 5%.

Today, trucking carriers, which account for the bulk of cargo handling, are losing market share, with maritime and rail transport segments increasing. This is due to the fact that in physical terms, both imports and exports of most consumer goods have significantly decreased, namely, they were transported by road. The import of food products, appliances, household chemicals has decreased several times. At the same time, due to the low exchange rate of the ruble, Russia has increased the export supplies of many raw materials - oil, gas, grain, metals, which are supplied abroad by sea and other types of transport. Sanctions and food embargoes also played a role: while trade with Europe declined, the share of Asia-Pacific countries increased, which, in terms of logistics, is more tied to other modes of delivery.

Ultimately, the volume of traffic by road transport fell by 7% to 5 billion tons, while at the same time, by sea transport, it increased by 18% to 18.3 million tons. At the same time, the volume of loading by rail, inland waterway, air and pipeline transport remained unchanged.

The volume of road transport fell by 12% in January last year, when Russia's foreign trade turnover collapsed by 34%. The devaluation of the ruble partly helped Russian road carriers - by the end of the year, domestic exporters significantly increased the volume of deliveries of certain products, but they failed to improve the situation in the industry - the demand for their services decreased, and a decrease in the volume of transported goods was observed every month.

Car carriers have faced other problems as well: costs of transport services, fuel and lease payments have risen, and high interest rates on loans continue to stifle business. The increased tariffs for CASCO and OSAGO did not add optimism either.

However, economic difficulties pale in comparison with the “care and support” that our state has provided to carriers.

Even at the beginning of 2015, the problem with TIR Carnets was still not resolved - the customs authorities limited its use in Russia, as a result of which almost the entire transit flow was concentrated in one narrow corridor in the North-West Federal District. As a result, transit through the territory of Russia became even less attractive than before, and the decline in trade with the EU countries ultimately hit the companies in this region the hardest. In January-October 2015, the volume of road freight traffic from Europe to Russia fell by 34%.

Also, during the past year, the order of the Ministry of Transport of August 21, 2013 No. 273 "On approval of the Procedure for equipping vehicles with tachographs" was actively implemented. These devices not only needed to be installed on all vehicles at their own expense, but also to regularly carry out their maintenance.

By the end of the year, the state decided to finally finish off the industry and introduced a toll for heavy trucks on federal roads - the so-called "Platon" system. The fare was set at 1.53 rubles per 1 km. For most carriers, this has translated into multiple increases in costs - for example, Danon notes that its transportation costs have doubled. Many small businesses are now compelled to leave the market altogether - payments exceed their monthly earnings.

Although analysts predict that the introduction of Plato will ultimately cause an increase in consumer prices, road carriers cannot completely shift the increased costs onto the shoulders of their customers - due to the fall in demand, companies are simply not able to increase tariffs and are forced to operate at a loss. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, the tariffs for road transportation showed the smallest increase in comparison with other modes of transport - over the year they grew by only 6%, while the overall increase in tariffs was 11.5%.

Despite the fact that road transportation is much more convenient in terms of logistics and delivery times, economic factors and administrative barriers led to the fact that by the end of the year, freight traffic began to shift more and more to the railroad. Since the introduction of the Plato system in November, the volume of rail traffic in December increased by 1%, while in the remaining months it did not exceed last year's figures.

Nevertheless, not everyone is ready to switch to rail transport today. For owners of small and medium-sized cargoes, transportation by rail remains unprofitable: the door-to-door delivery principle does not work, it is more difficult to plan deliveries, additional costs must be borne associated with loading and unloading goods. Market participants are also stopped by sharply increased tariffs - at the beginning of 2015 they increased by 10% for all Russian Railways transportation, and in addition to this, the Federal Tariff Service set a maximum permissible deviation from it. As a result, Russian Railways introduced a tariff surcharge of 13.4% for the transportation of a number of exported goods, including such key goods as oil and oil products, grain and metal products. After such reforms, the demand for rail transport decreased - this is especially evident in the indicators of the first half of the year. Moreover, some enterprises, whose activities are closely associated with transportation, even preferred to reduce production, especially against the background of a decrease in demand for it from China. Thus, despite the growth in physical volumes of exports, the volume of railroad transportation of oil and oil products (-2%), construction cargo (-7.3%), cement (-20%), and scrap of ferrous metals (-11%) fell.

On average, according to Rosstat, tariffs increased by 12.9%. At the same time, the profit of Russian Railways in the first half of the year increased eightfold - up to 18.26 billion rubles. In 2016, it is planned to increase tariffs by another 9%, and ultimately this will also affect consumers.

The situation is slightly better in maritime transport, in 2015 the volume of maritime cargo transportation amounted to 118.1 million tons, an increase of 17% compared to last year. The increase was mainly dictated by foreign trade reasons - the physical volumes of exports of goods supplied to Asian countries increased, which is especially evident since the fall of 2015. In December, the volume of traffic increased by 62% compared to the same month last year.

Along with the growth of sea traffic, the port's cargo turnover also increased - in January-December it amounted to 676.7 million tons, which is 5.7% higher than the same indicator of the last year. At the same time, it was export cargo that showed the greatest growth - 539.1 million tons (+ 7.7%). The handling of coal (+ 6%), grain (+ 15.1%), ferrous metals (+ 12.2%), timber (+ 10.7%) increased.

At the same time, the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin (+ 10.2%) and the Far East (+ 5.2%) showed the best dynamics. It was on them that the key export flows of domestic raw materials abroad were focused.

Due to the high transport costs for road and rail transport, more and more companies prefer new ways of transporting goods. The carriage of goods by ferries almost doubled, and the turnover of cabotage traffic increased by 15.6% - up to 56.1 million tons. Despite projects for the development of port and railway infrastructure, the creation of access roads and terminal and logistics centers, the use of road transport and the subsequent transshipment of goods onto ships is still a priority. Delivery of goods to seaports by road increased by 12.3% to 54.2 million tons.

River transport has not yet become a popular alternative for carriers, mainly bulk cargo and mineral raw materials are transported along rivers in Russia, moreover, the transportation is carried out by companies that are within transport accessibility of the waterway. However, some shifts have been outlined here - the volume of shipments from ports on inland waterways increased 2.5 times to 346 thousand tons, while dry cargo - almost five times. The devaluation of the ruble made the purchase of imported goods significantly more expensive, and the economy forced foreign trade participants to choose a cheaper method of transportation over long distances.

The volume of air cargo transportation in Russia is small - according to Rosstat, only 1.1 million tons of cargo were transported in 2015. By air, Russia receives mainly goods sent in international mail: equipment, clothing, printed materials, food and other consumer goods. At the same time, the largest share of the market is occupied by goods imported from non-CIS countries. In the first half of the year, the traffic volumes steadily increased compared to the previous year, however, the further weakening of the ruble, already in August, led to a decline in purchases of foreign goods and, as a result, in the volume of air cargo transportation.

According to the Federal Air Transport Agency, the volume of international cargo transportation fell by 8.7%, and domestic - by 14.2%. However, the real scale of the decline is much wider - the largest share of the cargo transportation market is occupied by the Airbridgecargo company - it accounts for 58% of the total volume of transported goods. At the same time, the company mainly carries out international transit, and most of its cargo enters Russia only with a stopover. A similar situation is observed with Aeroflot and a number of other companies. Transit traffic, which has shown an increase this year, is reported by statistics as international, but is not related to production or prices.

Meanwhile, other problems are brewing in the industry - international sanctions, rising fuel prices and an increase in the cost of servicing the aircraft fleet have also led to an increase in costs amid falling demand, and after Transaero left the market, many routes are still not closed by other carriers. ...

Thus, today the reduction in foreign trade flows has had a negative impact on the cargo transportation market, and the devaluation of the ruble and the fall in oil prices have led to an increase in costs not only for individual companies, but also for entire industries. Today, there is a reduction in investment and a freeze in construction. At the same time, the state continues to tighten the screws and increase taxes, leaving no room for development for the market.

The segment of the organization of groupage cargo transportation, due to its specificity, remains the most opaque in the field of logistics services: it is rarely written about (especially in comparison with warehouse logistics and 3PL), and its representatives are usually not inclined to disclose detailed information about their activities.

With the help of industry experts, we tried to understand the current state of the groupage shipment market and assess its prospects.

Logistics companies in the groupage cargo sector provide services for the delivery of relatively small shipments over long distances, allowing shippers to avoid unnecessary transport costs. They consolidate at their terminal the dispatches of different customers to an economically viable volume of transportation and arrange delivery to the terminal at the destination, where the cargo is disbanded and delivered to the recipients.

It is important that most of the shipments fall on the share of enterprises, and not on the parcels of individuals. The range of weight of such shipments can vary from 1 kg to 10 tons, lighter cargoes fall into the category of parcels and are accepted by companies specializing in groupage cargo transportation, only as an exception.

According to RBC.research, the logistics services market in Russia in 2012 amounted to 260 billion rubles, that is, 12.7% of the total volume of the transport and logistics services market. In the developed countries of Europe and America, this figure reaches 50% or more. Based on such a comparison, experts have been predicting a rapid outstripping growth of the logistics market in Russia for more than ten years, but none of it has been observed. It is unlikely that in the absence of structural reforms in the economy, this figure will exceed 15-17% in the foreseeable future.

But 260 billion is the volume of the entire market, and what percentage falls on the segment of organizing the transportation of groupage cargo? Strategy Partners Group has conducted a comparative analysis of the data using the indicators of the countries in which the relevant statistics are kept. In particular, the market for the transportation of groupage cargo in the United States was considered as fully formed and at the same time commensurate with Russia in terms of delivery distance.

The term "groupage" used in Russia, in the United States, falls into two different categories, which are always considered separately. These are parcels (weighing from 1 to 68 kg) and LTL (Less than Truck Load, heavier consignments, consolidated with other consignments for transportation in one vehicle). Courier companies such as FedEx, UPS and others operate in the $ 44 billion parcel delivery segment. In the LTL segment with a volume of 39 billion, in addition to the aforementioned courier companies, there are also trucking companies such as YRC, ODFL, ABF, and rail carriers. The largest player in LTL is FedEx with revenues of $ 5 billion - 13% of the segment's total. “These numbers show how much the US trucking market has changed over the past 30 years. In the 1980s, neither FedEx nor UPS were present in this segment, and now they have the tidbits, while LTL operators are fighting for the remaining customers, ”says Andreas Appli, consultant for Cambridge Systematics, a world leader in the field. transport planning.

With a total volume of the US transportation and logistics services market of $ 1.3 trillion, the share of parcel and LTL segments in it totals 7.2%. With a discount for the underdevelopment of the market and the high share of cargo transportation by our own vehicles, it can be expected that this share in Russia is significantly lower. Most likely, this indicator is closer to Poland, where the share of the groupage cargo segment is 4.0%. This indicator can be considered a moderately optimistic assessment of this segment of the logistics services market in Russia. Accordingly, the volume of the segment of groupage cargo transportation in Russia is about 70 billion rubles. The largest company in the segment is ZhelDorEkspeditsiya, with a market share of about 15%. This is followed by "Business Lines" and PEC.

“The segment of groupage cargo transportation, of course, will grow in proportion to the growth of the economy - choose the forecast that you like best. At the same time, its structure will change significantly. It is only a matter of time before the traditional “pickers” are squeezed out of the “parcels” sub-segment by courier companies. It is already quite active, for example, DPD, "Pony Express". Others will catch up - in the course of diversification outside the core business, ”says Alexander Ermakov, director of the consulting company Strategy Partners Group.

“It is most likely that the market of groupage cargo in Russia in 2014 will remain at the level of 2013 in terms of shipped weight and volume. With the unfavorable influence of macroeconomic factors, it is possible to reduce the turnover in relation to 2013 to 3%. In monetary terms, growth is also not expected, since despite the increase in costs caused by the rise in prices for fuel and lubricants and the rise in tariffs of natural monopolies, transport companies will not be able to increase tariffs without losing their market share due to heightened competition. An explosive growth of road transportation in the consolidated cargo market will not happen in the near future, especially over long distances, since rail transportation by mail and baggage wagons ensures a higher delivery speed and cargo safety, ”says Nikolay Shadrin, head of the commercial analytics department of ZheldorExpedition Group.

Evgeny Firsov, CEO of PEK, assessed the consolidated cargo transportation market a little more optimistically: “As of today, there are no official data on volumes in cargo turnover and in ruble terms, therefore any expert assessments are their subjective vision of the market. According to the estimates of the PEC company, the groupage cargo market is already about 80-90 billion rubles. Of course, now there is a slowdown in the development of the market, but we do not foresee stagnation. If we think according to the optimistic scenario, then we forecast the market growth from 2 to 6% per year (in comparable prices). A possible crisis that a number of experts predict should not seriously affect our industry. We do not expect an explosive growth of the market ”.