Import substitution: goal, concept, prospects. How import substitution stimulates Russian goods to change Why prices are rising

Recently, a number of trends have emerged in domestic marketing: the use of patriotic triggers, the development of the impression economy, and the emergence of simulacra brands. The Russian market is forced to interact and compete with foreign ones, especially in the context of import substitution.

As part of the business program of the exhibition “Packaging/Pack Italy - 2015”, a block of seminars “Branding - Design - Marketing” was presented, one of the main topics of which was the report by Grigory Khrabrov, strategist of the Brandson Branding Agency “How import substitution stimulates Russian goods to change. What brands are mimicking new values?” During the seminar, the speaker spoke about the basics of branding and rebranding, accompanying the report concrete examples, as well as the general theory of design and marketing.

Recently, a number of trends have emerged in domestic marketing: the use of patriotic triggers, the development of the impression economy, and the emergence of simulacra brands. The Russian market is forced to interact and compete with foreign ones. In this regard, the issue of import substitution and adaptation of domestic products to international conditions remains open.

Today we'll look at three successful examples adaptation of Russian goods to new market realities and ways through which domestic manufacturers can become truly competitive.

1. Flexibility, dynamism and resourcefulness

Russian manufacturers demonstrate flexibility, dynamism and ingenuity by producing designer goods in small quantities. Development of a brand of clutches for strollers “Muftyshi”.

The brand was introduced to the market gradually: first - design and the idea of customization, then packaging - showing the functionality of the product, emphasis on structural simplicity of assembly, setting up the production of bubble kits in any number of copies, development of custom packaging that allows you to revive the characters, adding emotion to them. An effective solution What increased sales was the conclusion of an agreement with stroller stores, where the couplings were presented in their functional purpose.

There are three basic design rules:

Design is always one of the valuable components of a product.
The design must be universal.
Only a unique product can have a unique design. Design is not decoration or an end in itself, but a way to convey differences and advantages.

Tribuna is a company with a Soviet background. It has been operating under this brand since 1933, but in reality, at the turn of the 2000s, production facilities were significantly updated. Currently, the brand has poor recognition, but has high loyalty among a small core of target audience, since it is associated with time-tested quality. At the same time, the company is practically the only competitive manufacturer of underwear in Russia today. The meaning of the company name is not understood by the target audience and, in fact, is a tribute to tradition. To rebrand the company, we studied the target audience and a development strategy, positioning and brand slogans were developed: “If I like myself, others like me”, “As for me” and others. At the end of the work, it was developed new design, taking into account positioning. Separately, the speaker noted the high quality of products made from Baltic fabric based on the designs of Italian designers, noting that the design of the product does not matter at all if there is no meaning behind this design, that is, quality.

What needs to be done for a brand to be successful:

Select the highest priority segment initially;
Assess the capacity of the domestic market (potential demand);
Assess the quality level of imported products relative to current production potential;
Develop a unique trade proposal and positioning of the future product together with the customer;
Just now start packing.

3. Death or rebirth

Soviet canteens in new reality- Obedov company.

The Obedov company is a professional entrepreneur who not only organizes catering, but also creates interesting environment facilitating communication in an informal setting. A special interaction design was developed for the Obedov company, including storytelling (entertainment and educational information on products), the principle feedback(providing feedback in a playful way in the form of napkins of different colors, each of which indicates the degree of satisfaction with the meal), a system of tastings and employee rewards, a “lucky table” promotion in the form of a lottery and other solutions.
Having briefly outlined the principles of working with the Masts hobby club, the speaker ended the report by once again emphasizing that brand design is a way to convey benefits, while the main characteristic of any product is quality.

Andrey Orlovsky

There would be no happiness, but misfortune would help! Macroeconomic trends of the current year gave to the Russian manufacturer a unique chance to bring domestic products to the market and increase your share in sales volume. The slogan “buy Russian” in the wake of the rise of patriotism has become a magic password and a reset point for the Russian market in the B2B and B2C segments.

Business district "Romanov Dvor"

10. 00 – 15. 00

Program

Practical cases of leaders - 2017

Russian creative: launch of the “Time to Shine” campaign

Anastasia Gorodnicheva, Category Marketing Manager chewing gum Wrigley in Russia

And here we are! Brand communication based on national charisma

Natalya Yafizova, Marketing Director, PRODO

Creating a successful brand: a family approach

Evgeny Vakhrameev, Marketing Director, Cheburashkin Brothers

Marketing success of Natura Siberica

Andrey Trubnikov, founder of Natura Siberica

Kvass instead of Coca-Cola: an atelier instead of a ready-made dress store

Andrey Barannikov, CEO communications agency SPN Communications

Creating a best-selling product in the era of import substitution

Ilya Balakhnin, CEO, Paper Planes

Questions for the panel discussion:

Competition domestic companies with global giants: where to start?
The secret of success: a review of fast-growing Russian companies
From the region to the capital market: strategy and tactics for progressive growth
Golden rules for entering retail networks
Prospects for the development of real-time marketing technology in the domestic market
How to create successful brand and change the rules of the game in the market?
Effective promotional campaign for any budget: best cases cases
10 steps to successful growth Russian market in 2017

Public talk with special guest:

Celebrity marketing in Russia: trends and brands"

The main goal of import substitution is to create an environment for national industry in which greater growth will be observed.

According to the Concept of long-term socio-economic development Russian Federation for the period until 2020, when forming the import substitution policy within the framework of the transition from the export of raw materials to an innovative model of economic growth, the following directions were identified as goal-setting: Gusakov N.P., Andronova I.V. Conceptual approaches to development new Strategy economic security// National interests: priorities and security. 2014. No. 46. P. 8.:

Consolidation and expansion of global competitive advantages Russia in traditional areas (energy, transport, agricultural sector, processing natural resources), including the realization of agricultural potential in terms of developing the export of grain and other agricultural products, production of environmentally friendly products, import substitution in the domestic market for livestock products;

Growth (including through import substitution) of medium-tech production - food industry, industry building materials, woodworking and pulp and paper industries, as well as export-oriented chemical industry and non-ferrous metallurgy;

Development of dual technologies, technological renewal of mass sectors of the economy (automotive industry, transport engineering and machine tool industry), which play a decisive role in increasing the average technological level of industry and import substitution;

Intensive processes of import substitution in the food industry and production household appliances and automotive industry.

In Strategy national security of the Russian Federation until 2020, along with the three main national security priorities (national defense, state security, public safety), five sustainable development priorities are identified:

Improving the quality of life of Russian citizens by guaranteeing personal safety and high standards of life support;

Economic growth, primarily through the development of national innovation system and investment in human capital;

Science, technology, education, healthcare and culture, which are developed by strengthening the role of the state and improving public-private partnerships;

Ecology of living systems and rational environmental management through balanced consumption and development advanced technologies and expedient reproduction of the country’s natural resource potential;

Strategic stability and equal strategic partnership.

Import substitution of goods with products of domestic producers at modern stage shows noticeable growth and is especially relevant in the field public procurement. Government orders are currently given paramount importance as a mechanism that stimulates both macro- and microeconomic processes in modern state. This mechanism, in one form or another, is actively used by a number of countries, including countries with high economic performance, as a measure to support domestic producers. Our country is no exception.

In this strategic document, import substitution is directly indicated only in connection with the development of conceptual and program documents for interregional and territorial planning, creation integrated system risk control primarily in the area food security(clause 50 “through the development of biotechnology and import substitution for basic food products”) and in the financial sector (clause 63 “carrying out an active state anti-inflationary exchange rate, exchange rate, monetary and fiscal policy focused on import substitution and support for the real sector economics").

Nevertheless, it seems that this institution of import substitution is directly related to all declared strategic priorities of national security.

Import substitution of goods with products of domestic producers at the present stage shows a noticeable increase and is especially important in the field of public procurement. Government orders are currently given paramount importance as a mechanism that stimulates both macro- and microeconomic processes in a modern state. This mechanism, in one form or another, is actively used by a number of countries, including countries with high economic performance, as a measure to support domestic producers. Our country is no exception.

President of the country V.V. Putin spoke about the need for import substitution in May 2014, speaking at SPIEF: “I consider it necessary to quickly analyze the possibilities of competitive import substitution in industry and agriculture.” At the same time, the president noted that the import substitution policy will be carried out in accordance with WTO norms and Russia’s obligations to its partners in the Eurasian Economic Union. The basis for import substitution should be internal sources growth.

Prime Minister D. Medvedev called the development of import-substituting industries one of the policy priorities. It's important to note that we're talking about not only about replacing the production of existing finished products.

According to experts, in the event of a large-scale unforeseen situation (war, international isolation, etc.), Russia will practically not be able to provide itself with strategically necessary products.

Import substitution as the main element of industrial policy will minimize the negative effect of the imposed sanctions. The main goals of import substitution are:

Ensuring national and state security of the Russian Federation;

Achieving technological independence in critical areas;

Promoting the formation of a positive trade balance;

Growing national leaders to conquer the global market.

The import substitution policy can lead to important changes in various areas, in particular:

Increased employment and, as a result, a reduction in unemployment and an increase in living standards;

Activations scientific and technological progress and growth in the level of education;

Strengthening the economic and military security of the country;

Growing demand for domestically produced goods;

Expansion production capacity.

The main criteria for the import substitution process should be economic, social and strategic feasibility. The stability of the resource supply of the economy, and therefore economic security, depends on the stability of the foreign trade balance.

Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation S. Tsyb emphasized: “... while solving the problems of import substitution in industry, we should not deny the principles of international economic integration. We do not fence ourselves off from the world, but conduct dialogue with our people as openly and transparently as possible. foreign partners. The development and support of domestic production does not exclude the possibility of technology transfer, creation and localization of production with the attraction of foreign investment.”

According to V.V. Putin, special attention when developing an import substitution strategy should be paid to defining: import substitution targets; the procedure for selection and incentive measures for enterprises and organizations participating in the implementation of plans; federal executive authorities responsible for the implementation of these plans.

Various experts are optimistic about the impact of the import substitution program. Thus, the Ministry of Industry and Trade believes that if a well-thought-out policy of import substitution is successfully implemented, by 2020 it is possible to reduce import dependence in various industries from 70...90% to 50...60%, and in a number of industries - to reach lower levels. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has set the task of reducing (by 2020) the share of imports in the manufacturing industry as a whole from 51 to 39% Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation [Electronic resource] Access mode: http://minpromtorg.gov.ru..

The import substitution program will allow Russian enterprises to generate additional production volumes worth over 30 billion rubles. annually (starting from 2015), says the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade D.V. Manturov. According to specialists of the All-Russian Popular Front, as a result of replacing imported components and materials with domestic ones, it is possible to ensure economic growth in Russia in the next 8 years by 5...7% annually. Economists suggest that with the intensification of import substitution processes, growth is possible industrial production in the Russian Federation by 10...15% or more in the next 5...7 years.

According to calculations working group State Council, the volume of replacement should be at least 4 trillion. rub., implementation time - 2-3 years. During this time, at least a million jobs will be created, and additional tax revenues to budgets of all levels will amount to about 500 billion rubles. As stated by the governor of the Belgorod region and head of the working group of the State Council, E. Savchenko: “...by implementing the import substitution program, we will make an economic breakthrough, which previously would have taken many years.”

President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin named manufacturing among the priority sectors in which import substitution is possible first of all software, radio-electronic and power equipment, textile industry and food production.

According to the results of an analysis conducted by the Ministry of Industry and Trade in June 2014, the most promising from the point of view of import substitution are:

Machine tool industry (share of imports in consumption, according to various estimates, more than 90%),

Heavy engineering (60…80%),

Light industry (70...90%),

Electronics industry (80...90%),

Pharmaceutical, medical industry (70...80%),

Mechanical engineering for the food industry (60...80%) Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation [Electronic resource] Access mode: http://minpromtorg.gov.ru..

As S. Tsyb notes, import substitution in these and other industries is possible only if there is free production capacity and competitive enterprises that can offer high-quality modern products at market prices: “In the long term, reducing import dependence is only possible through innovation, stimulating investment and creating new production.”

Particular emphasis is placed on the sphere of military-industrial production, where the task of complete import substitution is set.

According to another Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, Yu. Slyusar, “... when talking about import substitution, we mean total import substitution exclusively in defense industry. The task has been set to completely produce everything related to defense and security on Russian territory, and we will certainly accomplish this task. As for civilian products and dual-use technologies, here we are talking about import substitution from the point of view of increasing the share of Russian enterprises in the market.”

It is obvious that achieving the goals of import substitution will require significant efforts and investments, changes in the work of many enterprises and organizations.

In Belarus, by Decree of the Council of Ministers dated December 30, 2011 No. 1779, the list and production volumes of import-substituting consumer goods for 2012 were approved. It was decided to divide the goods that, according to the government, especially need import substitution, between ministries and concerts, the rest - between regional executive committees. Now government agencies are making their plans in this direction, taking into account the so-called scheme of work to replace goods imported into the country.

Yuri PSHENNIK

The government has set a target of including at least 60% of non-critical imports in the scheme. The list of goods that Belarusian enterprises must master the production of in 2012 is impressive in its diversity and the lack of logical prerequisites for production. Although, as stated in resolution No. 1779, “ consumer characteristics goods must ensure their competitiveness and correspond to the best world analogues, taking into account the proposals of the Ministry of Trade.” The Belgospischeprom concern, for example, is obliged to start producing “chocolate products in the shape of a hollow egg”, in other words, domestic “Kinder surprises”. The list of imported goods, the analogues of which the government intends to begin producing at Belarusian enterprises, is very impressive. There was a place in it for LCD TVs, scooters, coffee pots, electric irons, strollers for dolls, pots, leather clothes and even rakes.

The only thing not said is who will buy all this variety with the “Made in Belarus” brand. Experts’ assessments of the “import substitution” idea of our government vary widely, although there are many more negative opinions. Let's approach this issue from a different angle. It is very important to decide not only what to “import substitute”, but also how. This may be even more important. Therefore, let’s try to take a look at the marketing aspect of “import substitution”.

Be different or perish

“Be different or perish,” says marketing guru Jack Trout. If we apply this to our import substitution, we can state that our “import-substituting” copies will not withstand direct competition with the world’s leading brands. And the conditions for participation in the SES and, in the future, in the WTO will not allow us to directly prohibit or overly restrict the import of goods from abroad. And even if they were allowed, it would hardly help much. In the USSR there was such a ban, and everyone who wanted it wore “foreign” jeans and listened to Philips cassette players. And this was under the then Iron Curtain. But our borders are still open - especially in the east. So bans won't work. Therefore, we will have to withstand competition, for which, as I already mentioned, our “import-substituting” goods are not ready. What options could there be?

Let's take for example “chocolate products in the shape of a hollow egg” (hereinafter referred to as “Kinder”). If you make it exactly the same, you will have to sell it much cheaper than the original, because it has a global image and fame. The analogue will have a rather negative image, and even a reputation as a fake, regardless of the quality. After all, when comparing direct analogues, people always look for how the fake is worse than the original. And they always find something, even if the fake is actually better than the original. Nowadays, this sometimes happens. At the same time, the cost of the analogue will be higher, since we will never achieve significant production scales comparable to global transnational corporations. As a result, the domestic project will most likely turn out to be unprofitable.

Therefore, it is advisable to do not a direct analogue, but something on the theme of “Kinder”, but not completely identical. For example, not an egg, but an apple or a cube, or maybe a native potato. Instead of direct competition, there will be indirect competition, since both products are located in the same market niche. True, here people will also look for differences, but in this case they will benefit our product. Anyone who wants to give their child something more original and patriotic will buy a non-Kinder, especially if it turns out to be cheaper. In the case of complete copying, cheaper is definitely perceived as worse. Our “non-Kinder” will be able to take its place in it, which means that there will be less import of original “Kinder” ones. This is real, and not just for show, import substitution. But such ideas need to be worked on and paid for accordingly.

In this regard, the large-scale entry into the market in the 50s of the last century of a drink from the “cola” series - “Pepsi” is indicative. How did they manage to undermine the Coke monopoly? The drinks were similar, although not identical. At the same time, Pepsi relied on promoting the differences between its drink and Cola, and not on the fact that it is an almost identical substitute. Pepsi chose a “narrow section of the front” to break into the market, rather than launching an offensive “along the entire front.” Initially, Pepsi relied on youth. Those who are older probably still remember the slogan “Pepsi - Generation Next”. That is, “Cola” is for old people, but young and progressive people drink “Pepsi”. And, finally, Pepsi was cheaper, just finally, and not only that. Quite quickly, Pepsi became the second largest producer of cola drinks in the hierarchy, and for a very short time they even managed to slightly dislodge the leader. But “Cola” didn’t sleep either, however, that’s another story. But if Pepsi were positioned as a complete “substitute” for cola, as we are trying to do, there would be no success, even short-term. Given a choice, people choose the original over the fake. When we immediately emphasize that this is “non-Cola,” people look for why it is better than the original. And many find it, especially if you give them the right advice.

Let's go back to Jack Trout: "When attacking a larger competitor, you need to identify it strengths and try to avoid collisions in this direction.” We do the opposite, we oppose the competitor where he is strongest. And we do this consciously, and not out of ignorance. But any lieutenant knows that attacking the enemy’s strongest position is madness, especially for a “partisan” who is also much weaker than his competitor.

When a competitor cannot be defeated, you need to team up with him

Another option is not to fight against global brands, but to unite with them, organizing joint production on your territory. Thus, Coca-Cola and Fanta in Belarus are produced by the Coca-Cola company itself, just as BMW cars in Russia are produced by the BMW concern. This is precisely the correct “import substitution”, and at the same time investment. There is no direct competition with global brands, but rather cooperation and support. Including material, which is especially important for us today. This option is quite clear. The only question is whether global brands will agree to cooperate with us. But you have to try if the first option doesn’t work out. Because the production of complete analogues of foreign goods, and very often 90% of them from foreign raw materials and components, but under their own little-known, or even known from the negative side, brand - import substitution is incorrect. Including from a marketing point of view.

It all started as usual: with an emotional decision, coupled with incompetence and short-sightedness and covered up by traditional hypocrisy. Yes, I'm talking about the food embargo and its unpleasant consequences.

Although officially the food embargo was introduced as an asymmetric response to Western sanctions and was presented under the guise of support for domestic producers, first of all, it seems to me, it was a slap in the direction of the “creative class”.

In this sense, everything worked out flawlessly. First of all, I really feel humiliated that I can’t just go and buy my favorite gorgonzola at the store and eat it with honey and a glass of good wine. Secondly, I am absolutely sure that those responsible for making this decision are still not denying themselves anything. And thirdly, a huge number of compatriots, for whom the words “Parmesan” and “jamon” are almost abusive, joyfully supported this decision. Bingo! Another elegant multi-move, Putin outplayed everyone.

There is only one problem in this whole story, and it is that the victory turned out to be Pyrrhic. Demonstrating truly Jesuitical sophistication in domestic political intrigues, our government again and again stumbles over its lack of understanding of the laws of economics and the motives of behavior of normal people.

When, in its infinite wisdom and concern for the public good, the government introduced an embargo on the import of beef, pork, poultry, fish, shellfish, dairy products, as well as vegetables and root vegetables into the Russian Federation, it immediately became clear to everyone except this very government: the price will rise, oh how the price goes up.

Moreover, everything will become more expensive at once: prohibited and permitted, imported and domestic. This is how our economy works, in which 36% food products imported. And you don’t need to understand macroeconomics; it’s enough to grow up in this country to understand such things intuitively, at the level of genetic memory. And then reflexively run to the store, buy buckwheat and stewed meat while they are still available.

What did the government do to avoid price increases? Correct: it organized a commission tasked with “ensuring balance commodity markets and prevent the acceleration of price increases for agricultural products, raw materials and food.” An absolutely logical decision, by the way.

Firstly, at least some kind of imitation of activity needs to be created so that there is something to communicate to the electorate.

Secondly, the commission is a special format of work in which it is impossible to find the guilty when nothing comes of it.

Thirdly, even a hedgehog understands that no commission will hold back prices, so a streamlined dummy formulation is used “to prevent growth from accelerating.” That is, if prices first increase several times, and then only by 50%, then everything is fine, the commission managed it.

You know as well as I do how much food prices have actually gone up; it doesn’t even smell like an official 6-7%. (How official inflation statistics may differ from real ones and why, I already.) For example, in the Samara region, prosecutors compared prices in August and December 2014 and found that cabbage, cucumbers and peppers had risen in price by 353%, 544% and 654%, respectively . Over the same period, the cost of buckwheat increased by 276%. Meat products, frozen fish, cheese, sour cream and potatoes increased in price by over 50%. In January, the price increase continued: in 22 days, the price of tomatoes increased by 26%, cucumbers by 48%, carrots by 58%, and grapes by 85%.

Why are prices rising?

Two reasons led to the rise in prices: the food embargo and the depreciation of the ruble.

Let's start with the obvious: retail chains preferred to purchase imported products not at all out of a desire to ruin the long-suffering domestic manufacturer. The reasons were ridiculously banal:

it is simply cheaper to buy products of comparable quality abroad;
at a comparable price, the quality of imported products is disproportionately higher;
Many imported products simply do not have a sane domestic analogue.

We’ll talk about why this situation happened later, but for now let’s just think about the consequences of the embargo. There are also exactly three of them:

rising prices (due to switching to more expensive suppliers or shortages);
reduction in the quality of available products;
disappearance of entire categories of goods from shelves (for example, hard cheeses).

With the fall in the ruble exchange rate, everything is also simple: purchase prices for imported goods in foreign currency remained unchanged, in rubles they almost doubled. In addition, the price includes the expectation of a further fall of the ruble. After all, if trade company buys products for foreign currency, sells for rubles and between the purchase and sale the exchange rate manages to rise, then instead of profit the company risks making losses. Who needs it?

With “domestic” goods the story is similar, only the cause-and-effect chain is a little longer. It’s not for nothing that I put the word “domestic” in quotes: in the cost of almost any locally produced product there is something imported: seeds, fertilizers, Technical equipment, packaging materials and so on. Until we finally turn into North Korea, the price of any domestic product will depend to a greater or lesser extent on the ruble exchange rate.

In the meantime, while the border is not closed and the export of domestic goods is possible, another strong factor is at work: the price of this product abroad. (First of all, this applies to exchange goods: grain and fertilizers, but this factor also affects the rest.) It makes no sense for a manufacturer to sell his goods cheaply to a domestic buyer if they are willing to buy it abroad and pay more.

It is obvious that no import substitution, even if it is three times successful, can reduce the price as long as there is an alternative sales market in which products can be sold at a higher price.

The Empire Strikes Back

In addition to such purely decorative measures as organizing various commissions, the government has several more ideas on how to curb price increases:

replacement of “bad” foreign suppliers (Europe and America) with other, “good” ones;
the notorious import substitution and support for domestic producers;
fighting windmills; administrative regulation of the market.

Let's figure out which of this is realistic and which is not and what consequences await us.

Change of suppliers

To understand that this is practically impossible, just look at world map agricultural zones. The color indicates the percentage of land used for planting (darker means more), the numbers indicate the area of the zone in millions of hectares.

The largest and most well-developed agricultural zone is in the United States and covers southern Canada. Next - Europe and southern Russia, Kazakhstan, the Middle East. All that remains besides what has already been listed is China, India, a little bit of South America and a tiny piece of Australia. You don’t even need to take Africa into account.

We have banned ourselves from importing products from Europe, the USA, Canada and Australia; India exports almost nothing, leaving China and South America.

China exports quite a lot of food - about $36 billion a year, which is approximately equal to the exports of Spain, almost half the exports of France, Germany or Holland, and three times less than the food exports of the United States.

Any country (even a large exporter) simultaneously imports food - well, bananas and apples cannot grow equally well in either direction. So Holland produces and exports significantly more food than it imports (79 versus 49.5 billion dollars). On the contrary, China imports twice as much as it exports, which means it makes no sense to count on it as a supplier of products.

South America is good for everyone, except for two things: small production volumes (only Argentina is noticeable with its 35.7 billion dollars), which they sell perfectly well without us, and geographical remoteness, which fundamentally increases the price. Actually, this is the most distant point in the world from us.

Conclusion: replacing current suppliers of imported products is almost impossible and will certainly lead to higher prices.

Import substitution

Well, the time has come for awesome stories and import substitution is one of my favorites, right after nanotechnology and modernization, and it’s not even clear which story is more awesome than the others.

As you already know, we live in the largest country in the world and all other countries envy us. Together with Crimea, the area of the Russian Federation is 17,124,442 km2. Then come Canada, China and the USA.

And this is a map of agricultural lands in the Russian Federation.

Agricultural lands occupy 196.2 million hectares, and arable land itself - 115.1 million hectares, which is approximately 6.7% of the entire territory. Why so few? Because up to 65% of the territory of the Russian Federation is occupied by permafrost. The best thing that can grow on it is moss and stunted shrubs.

The productivity of crop production depends very much on average annual temperatures, and the average annual temperature in the Russian Federation is a harsh minus 5.5 degrees Celsius. For comparison: in

Finland +1.5 degrees. Helsinki, St. Petersburg and Moscow have the same average annual temperatures: +5C. In the warmest agricultural center of the Russian Federation - Krasnodar - +12. In the USA the average is +12, in Germany +8, in France +12, in Spain +15.

This means that we will never, under any circumstances, get the same yields as in the USA and Europe. That is, even with absolutely similar labor productivity, the cost of domestic products will always be higher than imported ones.

Speaking of productivity: in Canada, two people can fully operate a 200-cow farm. For us, this is something from the realm of legends and traditions - on a farm of this size, we only have two people: the chairman and Chief Accountant, and besides them, another 20-30 people work there: milkmaids, machine operators, watchmen, mechanics, veterinarians and God knows who else. All this ultimately increases the cost of production.

What about Canada? Labor productivity in the agricultural sector of the Russian Federation is approximately two times lower than in our other industries: the share of agriculture in Russia’s GDP is 4.7% (2009), and the share of people employed in agriculture is 10% (2008) .

Another factor that increases the cost of domestic food products is our vast expanses. More precisely, a long transport shoulder. Take, for example, the banned Norwegian salmon. What can replace it? That's right: ours, the Far Eastern ones. How much can it cost?

The answer is very simple: exactly as much as it can be sold locally to the Japanese, plus the cost of delivery to central Russia. The distance from Vladivostok to Moscow along the highway is 9141 km, in a straight line - 6417 km. At the same time, from Oslo (Norway) to Moscow is 1953 km, and in a straight line - 1644 km. The difference is four times for a product that must be transported in refrigerators. It’s obvious where it’s more profitable to ship from.

Now about the time factor. Laws will be written soon, but things will not be done soon, especially in agriculture. It takes 15-20 months to fatten a bull, otherwise the game is not worth the candle. Guess for yourself how long it takes for fruit trees to grow. The notorious Parmesan matures from 12 to 36 months, provided that the technology for its production has already been mastered.

I once happened to see an interview with a Dutch cheesemaker who talked about how his company has been producing Maasdam cheese for 30 years, and now they have finally managed to ensure that the holes in it turn out exactly as needed. Thirty years to obtain the highest quality product in a country with centuries-old cheese-making traditions! How long will it take in the homeland of the legendary Poshekhonsky, Russian and Kostroma cheeses? Most likely, I simply will not live to see this moment.

Well, God bless them, the cheeses. Let's talk about vegetables. 65-70% of vegetable products, all rice, more than 20% of feed are produced on reclaimed lands, which occupy 7.9% of the total area of arable land. The condition of these lands is quite deplorable: more than half of the irrigation systems (2.4 million hectares) are in need of reconstruction, more than a third of the drainage systems (1.9 million hectares) are in an unsatisfactory reclamation condition. To increase vegetable production, you must first at least put in order what has been destroyed.

So, the best we can hope for in the field of import substitution of agricultural products is that in a few years we will receive the required amount of products of more or less decent quality, but still more expensive than imported ones, for which we will have to increase the production of milk and meat by about 30- 35% of the current volume, vegetables and fruits - by 100% or more.

This will require large-scale land reclamation, construction of new farms or restoration of old ones, purchase of agricultural equipment, increase in food industry capacity, acquisition additional quantities young animals, seed material, fertilizers, fuels and lubricants. All this is connected with enormous capital investments, which will begin to yield returns only in a few years. State help would be of no help here. Moreover, even Europe, which is super-prosperous compared to us, does not forget to subsidize its Agriculture, spending 40-50 billion euros per year on this, that is, approximately 3 trillion. rubles

I’ll say right away: 3 trillion is more than the entire gross product in agriculture, hunting and forestry in Russia, which amounted to 2.4 trillion in 2014. rubles The figure is prohibitive for us. If we spent that much on subsidies, then our products would not only be free, we would also be paid a little extra for them in the store.

In fact, the government plans to spend 2 billion rubles in 2015 on discounts on domestic agricultural machinery and another 2 billion on leasing subsidies. This is approximately 1:1000 of EU subsidies to its agricultural producers. How realistic it is to catch up and overtake them at such a pace - decide for yourself.

Expecting to boost agriculture with credit money is all the more pointless - not only do loans for our producers, thanks to games with a key rate, cost many times more than for European ones, but there is not much to take them on: during the years of stability, many agricultural enterprises have already taken everything loans that they could, pledging almost everything they had against them. Nobody will give them new ones in such a situation.

Since money is not working out very well, our state copes as best it can, and for this it has several administrative tools from the category of “prohibit and not allow”:

Export duties on fertilizers and agricultural products;
Fixing prices for social significant goods;
Elimination of the institution of trade intermediaries;
Limitation of trade margins;
Requirements for minimal assortment at retail outlets.

Actually, the mechanism has already been launched:

The FAS and the prosecutor's office are still under the illusion that prices can simply be taken and adjusted on command. On January 23, the head of the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) Igor Artemyev cheerfully reported that they had opened 98 cases of overpricing. At the same time, the FAS cannot explain how exactly the service determines the validity or unjustification of price increases and how it treats manufacturers’ arguments about the large foreign currency component in the cost of domestic products.

Retail chains may be prohibited from directly purchasing imported products. The corresponding bill is planned to be presented for discussion during the spring session of the Russian parliament, as reported by TASS with reference to the Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Agricultural and Food Policy and Environmental Management Sergei Lisovsky.

From February 1, Russia introduced an export duty on wheat in the amount of 15% of the customs value plus 7.5 euros, but not less than 35 euros per ton.

The Ministry of Agriculture did not lag behind and also offered two options to help farmers: introduce export duties on mineral fertilizers or freeze domestic prices for them. Concerned about the prospect of introducing duties, fertilizer producers promised not to raise prices and did right choice— only 10-25% of their production volumes go to the domestic market.

IN Nizhny Novgorod Intermediaries (distributors of agricultural products) were appointed to blame for the rise in prices and retailers were asked to purchase them directly from producers.

Deputies from United Russia plan to limit trade margins for socially significant goods, as well as to limit the return by retail chains of socially significant goods that were not sold before the expiration date.

The government already has the opportunity to fix retail prices for up to 90 days for “socially important” goods and can be used at any time.

Do you want to know what will happen as a result of such “support”? Yes, you yourself probably know:

A sharp decline in the profitability of those few manufacturers who have a real export prospect and who could develop, grow, and create jobs.
An increase in prices for goods that are not included in the list of “socially important” in order to compensate for the losses of retail chains.
Shortage of goods, prices for which will be fixed. Manufacturers will hold on to them, and consumers will buy them up while they can.
Retail chains will find themselves between two fires: on the one hand, an increase in purchasing prices, on the other, fixed selling prices. When they want to give up unprofitable goods, they will be forced to keep this assortment on the shelves under the threat of losing their retail license. Many will think that it is time to close.
Fighting with intermediaries will only worsen the situation. Distributors are the circulatory system for retail. These are warehouses, transport, packaging, sorting. Of course, you can buy products from the manufacturer without them, but what will you do if you need three bags of potatoes in Moscow, and the manufacturer only sells them by the wagonload, self-pickup from Krasnodar?

In short, if all the government’s ideas are implemented, then we will get exactly what the USSR ended with - cards and coupons, shortages and queues. For general development, you can read what is happening now in Venezuela - another major exporter oil.

Oh yes! My friends complain that lately I have been writing only about bad things, but now I want something positive, life-affirming. Therefore, I would like to end with good news: there is one category of our compatriots who, even in this difficult situation, will definitely be able to increase their well-being. These are employees of the prosecutor's office, the federal antimonopoly service, and many other supervisory agencies, whose representatives are already happily knocking on the doors of greedy retailers, heartless exporters and treacherous distributors, preparing to collect a bountiful harvest from them. Let us rejoice at the new successes of the officials and security forces who guard our interests!

Update 04/03/2015:

Restricting the import of products has not yet helped Russian farmers - many have even reduced investment programs, Andrei Oleynik, managing director of agribusiness at Basel and head of the board of directors of the Kuban holding, told RBC.
The Russian Guild of Bakers and Confectioners (ROSPiK) complained to the Federal Antimonopoly Service about regional authorities who are freezing prices in retail networks. They argue that such measures lead to the death of business.
The Baltika brewing company (part of the Carlsberg Group) plans to sell plants in Chelyabinsk and Krasnoyarsk that were shut down in January. Previously, Baltika adopted a moratorium on hiring employees and increasing wages.

Update 13/03/2015:

Producers in China and India did not meet expectations for the volume of meat supplies to Russia after the country introduced a food embargo, said the head of Rosselkhoznadzor Sergei Dankvert.