The method of expert assessments of the analysis of economic risk. The method of expert risk assessments. definition of risk variables

The risk is inherent in any area economic activity... The problem of risk is of particular importance in entrepreneurship, where intensive changes in the environment of a business entity necessitate a prompt and energetic response to the transformations that come in business. In this case, it is necessary to take into account the industry specifics that determine the risk factors, the degree of their manifestation and significance.
The lack of scientifically based approaches to the analysis and assessment of the risk of scientific and industrial enterprises leads to such undesirable consequences as loss of profits, unrealized stocks of goods, reduced investment efficiency, the occurrence of losses during the conclusion of transactions, a reduction in the resource base, etc.
Despite a significant amount of research in the field of risk analysis and active searches for ways to objectively assess the magnitude of risk, many methodological and methodological issues of this important problem have not yet been resolved. So, in particular, until now there is no consensus on the nature and content of the economic risk of enterprises, criteria and indicators (general and specific) for assessing economic risk have not been substantiated, there is no scientifically substantiated classification of factors that determine economic risks, in particular external enterprise risks in market conditions functioning.
The need to increase the risk assessment of an enterprise and, in particular, a research and production enterprise in market conditions predetermined the relevance of the research topic.
The purpose of the essay is to improve the theoretical foundations and the development of methodological provisions for the analysis of external risk and an expert method for assessing the risk of scientific and industrial enterprises in market conditions of operation to increase the efficiency of their development.

1. Analysis and assessment of risks

The problem of analyzing, assessing and managing risks in the implementation of production activities by enterprises is today one of the central problems in the Russian economy. In a planned economy, when unprofitable enterprises received subsidies through the redistribution of funds from profitable enterprises, these problems were not so urgent. At present, if the company does not make a profit, and even more so if there is no return on the invested funds, then the company is on the brink of bankruptcy. Therefore, the rational use of funds and taking into account the risk factor is the most important moment in the activities of the enterprise.
In the conditions of the formation of market relations, the role and significance of individual elements of the management process has radically changed, therefore, the theoretical approaches to their analysis, assessment and organization at the enterprise also change.
The number of unresolved problems in the management of economic and production risks at industrial enterprises has significantly increased at the present time with the emergence of a competitive environment.
At the same time, it is important to take into account that any of the objects and subjects of production activity is exposed to the systemic impact of risks of various hierarchical levels: geopolitical, political, social, economic, financial, industrial, commercial, technogenic.
It is possible to reduce the risk, first of all, by careful preliminary study, calculation of operations, the choice of a rational, less dangerous option of action. Correct accounting of risk factors and rational risk management at the enterprise contributes to its successful market activities, while other enterprises, whose management does not pay due attention to risks, in a similar market situation, inevitably turn out to be unprofitable. Therefore, the issues of theory and practice of risk assessment and management have acquired particular relevance at the present time.
The purpose of the risk analysis is to provide potential partners with the necessary data to make decisions about the advisability of participating in the project and to provide measures to protect against possible financial losses. Risk analysis is performed in the sequence shown in Fig. one.

Figure 1. Sequence of risk analysis.

General principles of risk analysis. When people talk about the need to take into account risk in project management, they usually mean its main participants: a customer, an investor, an executor (contractor) or a seller, a buyer, as well as an insurance company. When analyzing the risk of any of the project participants, the following criteria are used, proposed by the famous American expert B. Berlimer:
losses from risk are independent of each other;
loss in one direction from the “risk portfolio” does not necessarily increase the likelihood of loss in another (except for force majeure circumstances);
the maximum possible damage should not exceed the financial capabilities of the participant.
Risk analysis can be divided into two mutually complementary types: qualitative and quantitative. A qualitative analysis can be relatively simple, its main task is to determine the risk factors, the stages of work, during the implementation of which the risk arises, that is, to establish the potential areas of risk, and then to identify all possible risks. Quantitative risk analysis, that is, the numerical determination of the size of individual risks and the risk of the project as a whole, is a more complex problem. All factors that in one way or another affect the growth of the degree of risk in the project can be conditionally divided into objective and subjective.

1.1. Risk Zones and Risk Curve

An entrepreneur should always strive to take into account the possible risk and provide measures to reduce its level and compensate for possible losses. This is the essence of risk management (risk management). The main goal of risk management (especially for the conditions of modern Russia) is to ensure that, in the worst case, we can talk about the absence of profit, but not about the bankruptcy of the organization. To assess the degree of acceptability of commercial risk, risk zones should be identified depending on the expected amount of losses. General scheme risk zones are shown in Fig. 2.

Figure 2. Risk areas.

The area in which no losses are expected, i.e. where economic result economic activity positive, called the risk-free zone. The zone of acceptable risk is an area within which the value of probable losses does not exceed the expected profit and, therefore, commercial activity has economic feasibility. The border of the acceptable risk zone corresponds to the level of losses equal to the estimated profit. The critical risk zone is the area of possible losses exceeding the expected profit up to the value of the total estimated revenue (the sum of costs and profits). Here, the entrepreneur risks not only not receiving any income, but also incurring direct losses in the amount of all costs incurred.
The area of catastrophic risk is the area of probable losses that exceed the critical level and can reach a value equal to the organization's own capital. A catastrophic risk can lead an organization or entrepreneur to collapse and bankruptcy. In addition, the category of catastrophic risk (regardless of the amount of property damage) should include the risk associated with the threat to life or health of people and the occurrence of economic disasters. A visual representation of the level of commercial risk is given by a graphical representation of the dependence of the probability of losses on their value - the risk curve (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Risk curve.

The construction of such a curve is based on the hypothesis that profit as a random variable is subject to the normal distribution law and assumes the following assumptions.
1. The most likely profit, equal to the calculated value - Ex. The probability (Bp) of obtaining such a profit is maximum and the value of P can be considered the mathematical expectation of profit. The probability of making a profit, more or less than the calculated one, decreases monotonically as the deviations grow.
2. Losses are considered to be a decrease in profit (? P) in comparison with the calculated value. If the real profit is equal to P, then? P = Pr - P.
The assumptions made are, to a certain extent, controversial and are not always true for all types of risks, but on the whole they fairly accurately reflect the most general patterns of change in commercial risk and make it possible to construct a probability distribution curve for profit losses, which is called the risk curve (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. Curve of probability distribution of profit loss.

The main thing in assessing commercial risk is the ability to build a risk curve and determine the zones and indicators of acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks. Thus, the risk analysis process includes the following stages:
creation of a forecast model;
definition of risk variables;
determining the probability distribution of the selected variables and determining the range of possible values for each of them;
establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;
model runs;
analysis of results.
Risk variables. These are variables that are critical to the viability of the project, that is, even small deviations from its intended value negatively affect the project. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyzes are used to select variables. Sensitivity analysis measures the reaction of project results to changes in a particular project variable.
Uncertainty analysis helps to isolate higher risk variables. The set of assumed values of a variable should be wide enough, but with boundaries: minimum and maximum values. Thus, a range of possible values is set for each risk variable. There are two main categories of probability distributions: 1) normal, uniform and triangular distributions (spread the probability within the same range, but with different degrees of concentration relative to the mean). These types of distribution are called symmetric; 2) step and discrete distributions. With discrete distribution, range intervals are allocated, each of which is assigned a certain weight in probability in a stepwise manner (Fig. 5).

Figure 5. Probability distribution.

Correlated variables. Identifying risk variables and giving them an appropriate probability distribution is a prerequisite for conducting a risk analysis. With the successful completion of these two stages of analysis, with a reliable computer program, you can proceed to the simulation stage. At this stage, the computer generates a series of scenarios based on random numbers generated using specified probability distributions.
Regression and correlation are commonly used to analyze the available data to make it easier to predict the dependent variable from the actual or hypothetical values of the independent variable. As a result of such analyzes, the regression equation and the correlation coefficient are derived. For risk analysis, this is just the input data, and the result is the information generated during the simulation. The task of correlation analysis in relation to risk analysis is to control the values of the dependent variable, allowing you to maintain compliance with the opposite values of the independent variable.
Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common:
statistical;
expert assessments;
analytical;
appraisals financial sustainability and solvency;
assessing the feasibility of costs;
analysis of the consequences of risk accumulation;
method of using analogs;
combined method.

1.2. Expert assessment methods

In an unstable environment, when the repetition of the economic situation for an entrepreneur under the same conditions is practically unfeasible and there is no information about the possibility of the occurrence of risk events, one can use subjective methods of expert assessments, judgments and personal experience an expert, the opinion of a financial manager, etc.
Expert methods assessments allow you to determine the levels of financial risks in the event that the company does not have the necessary information to make calculations or comparisons. These methods are based on a survey of experts (qualified specialists from insurance, tax, financial authorities, investment managers, employees of relevant specialized firms) with subsequent statistical processing of the survey results. The survey should focus on certain types risks identified for this operation.
An expert assessment of the level of risk is not a decision, but only useful information to help you choose an informed decision. Only the risk manager can decide on the level of risk based on his preferences, and he is responsible for them.
Expert assessment methods are widely used in determining the levels of inflation, interest rate, emission, foreign exchange, investment and some other types of financial risks.
This method assumes the collection and examination of estimates made by various specialists (the enterprise or external experts) regarding the likelihood of various levels of losses. Estimates are based on taking into account all financial risk factors, as well as on statistical data. The implementation of the method of expert assessments is significantly complicated if the number of assessment indicators is small.
The variant and probable nature of many project processes increases the role of expert judgment in determining economic and financial indicators. Such assessments are used quite regularly both in domestic and foreign practice. During the transition period, the role of expert opinions in determining the corresponding indicators increases significantly, since the indicators used for the calculation are not prescriptive. An appropriate expert assessment can be obtained both after conducting special studies and using the accumulated experience of leading specialists. The increase in risk in the implementation of the project requires a more thorough assessment of the critical moments of its implementation. A bunch of baselines, often competing with each other, involves the use of expert assessments to construct a project quality criterion. Therefore, the investment appraisal system in modern conditions by force of necessity becomes "human-algorithmic", and the role of a human expert is decisive.
Expert judgment is the identified software special technique expert opinion on a particular issue. An expert assessment is necessary for making a decision at the stage of preparing a technical feasibility study. But already in the feasibility study, the number of expert assessments should be minimal. A stepwise risk assessment is based on the fact that risks are determined for each stage of the project separately, and then the total result for the entire project is found. Typically, each project is divided into stages: preparatory (implementation of the entire range of work required to start the project); construction (erection of necessary buildings and structures, purchase and installation of equipment); functioning (bringing the project to full capacity and making a profit). The nature of the investment project as something being done on an individual basis essentially leaves the only opportunity for assessing the values of risks - the use of expert opinions. Each expert working separately is presented with a list of primary risks for all stages of the project and is asked to assess the likelihood of risks occurring in accordance with the following rating system:
0 - the risk is considered insignificant;
25 - the risk is most likely not realized;
50 - nothing definite about the occurrence of an event
you can't say;
75 - the risk is most likely to manifest;
100 - the risk is realized.
The experts' assessments are subjected to consistency analysis, which is carried out according to certain rules. First, the maximum allowable difference between the assessments of two experts for any factor should not exceed 50. Comparisons are made modulo (plus or minus signs are not taken into account), which eliminates unacceptable differences in experts' assessments of the likelihood of a particular risk. If the number of experts is more than three, then pairwise comparable opinions are evaluated. Second, to assess the consistency of experts' opinions on the entire set of risks, a pair of experts is identified whose opinions differ most strongly. To calculate the discrepancy, the estimates are summed up by module and the result is divided by the number of simple risks. The quotient of the division should not exceed 25. In the event that contradictions are found between the opinions of experts (at least one of the above rules is not met), they are discussed at meetings with experts. In the absence of contradictions, all expert assessments are reduced to the average (arithmetic mean), which is used in further calculations.
A separate problem is the justification and assessment of priorities. Its essence lies in the need to free experts who assess the likelihood of risk from assessing the importance of each individual event for the entire project. This work should be performed by the project developers, namely the team that prepares the list of risks to be assessed. The task of the experts is to provide an assessment of the risks. After determining the probabilities for simple risks (obtaining an average expert assessment), it is necessary to obtain an integral risk assessment of the entire project. For this, the risks of each substage or composition of stages are first calculated: functioning, financial and economic, technological, social and environmental. Then the risks of each stage are calculated - preparatory, construction, functioning.
Another important method of risk research is the modeling of the choice problem using a “decision tree”. This method involves the graphical construction of options for decisions that can be made. The branches of the "tree" correlate subjective and objective assessments of possible events. Following along the constructed branches and using special methods of calculating probabilities, each path is evaluated and then the less risky one is chosen.
There are no ready-made recipes in risk management and cannot be. But knowing his methods, techniques, ways of solving certain economic problems, you can achieve tangible success in a specific situation.
The manager's intuition and insight play a special role in solving risky problems. Intuition is the ability to find the correct solution to a problem directly, as if suddenly, without logical thinking. Intuition is an essential component of the creative process. Insight is the consciousness of solving a specific problem. At the moment of insight, the decision is clearly recognized, but this clarity is often short-lived. Therefore, a conscious fixation of the decision is necessary.
In cases where it is impossible to calculate the risk, risk decisions are made using heuristics, which is a combination of logical techniques and methodological rules of theoretical research and finding the truth. In other words, these are ways to solve particularly complex problems. Risk management has its own system of heuristic rules and techniques for making decisions under risk conditions (Fig. 6).

Figure 6. Heuristic rules for making a risk decision.

2. Risk management
In a market economy, producers, sellers, and buyers act independently in a competitive environment, that is, at their own peril and risk. Their financial future is therefore unpredictable and unpredictable. Risk management represents a system of risk assessment, risk management and financial relations arising in the business process. Risk can be managed using a variety of measures that allow to predict the occurrence of a risk event to a certain extent and take timely measures to reduce the degree of risk.
The degree and magnitude of the risk can really be influenced through the financial mechanism, which is carried out using the techniques of strategy and financial management. This kind of risk management mechanism is risk management. Risk management is based on the organization of work to identify and reduce the degree of risk.
Risk management represents a system of risk management and economic (more precisely, financial) relations arising in the process of this management, and includes the strategy and tactics of management actions.
Management strategy refers to the directions and ways of using funds to achieve the goal. Each method corresponds to a certain set of rules and restrictions for making the best decision. The strategy helps to concentrate efforts on various solutions that do not contradict the general line of the strategy and to discard all other options. After achieving the set goal, this strategy ceases to exist, since new goals put forward the task of developing a new strategy.
Tactics - the practical methods and techniques of management to achieve an established goal in a specific environment. The task of management tactics is the choice of the most optimal solution and the most constructive methods and techniques of management in a given economic situation.
Risk management as a control system consists of two subsystems: a controlled subsystem - a control object and a control subsystem - a control subject. The object of management in risk management is risky capital investments and economic relations between business entities in the process of risk realization. Such economic relations include the relationship between the policyholder and the insurer, the borrower and the lender, between entrepreneurs, competitors, etc.
The subject of management in risk management is a group of managers (financial manager, insurance specialist, etc.), which, through various options of its influence, carries out the purposeful functioning of the controlled object. This process can be carried out only under the condition of circulating the necessary information between the subject and the object of control. The management process always involves the receipt, transfer, processing and practical use information. The acquisition of information that is reliable and sufficient in a given context is essential as it helps to make the right decision on how to deal with risk. Information support consists of various types of information: statistical, economic, commercial, financial, etc.
This information includes information about the likelihood of a particular insured event, event, about the presence and amount of demand for goods, for capital, about the financial stability and solvency of its customers, partners, competitors, etc.
An economic entity must be able not only to collect information, but to store and retrieve it if necessary. The best filing cabinet for collecting information is a computer that has both good memory and the ability to quickly find the information you need.
The following functions of risk management are distinguished:
- the object of management, which includes the organization of risk resolution; risky capital investments; works to reduce the magnitude of the risk; the risk insurance process; economic relations and connections between the subjects of the economic process.
- the subject of management, within which forecasting, organization, coordination, regulation, stimulation, control.
Before deciding on a risky capital investment, the financial manager must determine the maximum amount of loss for this risk; compare it with the amount of invested capital; compare it with all your own financial resources and determine if the loss of this capital will lead to bankruptcy of the investor. The amount of loss from capital investment can be equal to the amount of this capital, be less or more.
The organization of risk management involves the identification of a risk management body, which can be a financial manager, a risk manager or an appropriate management apparatus, say, a department of risk capital investments, which should perform the following functions:
- to carry out venture and portfolio investments, that is, risky investments in accordance with the current legislation and the charter of an economic entity;
- develop a program of risky investment activities;
- collect, analyze, process and store information about the environment;
- determine the degree and cost of risks, strategy and management techniques;
- develop a program of risky decisions and organize its implementation, including control and analysis of results;
- carry out insurance activities, conclude insurance and reinsurance contracts, carry out insurance and reinsurance operations;
- to develop conditions of insurance and reinsurance, to establish the size of tariff rates for insurance operations;
- issue a guarantee under the surety of domestic and foreign companies, make compensation for losses at their expense, entrust other persons with the performance of similar functions abroad;
- maintain appropriate accounting, statistical and operational reporting on risky capital investments.
Risk management strategy is the art of risk management in an uncertain economic situation, based on risk forecasting and risk reduction techniques. This strategy includes the rules on the basis of which risk decisions are made and how to choose their option.
The following rules apply in the risk management strategy:
- maximum winnings,
- the optimal probability of the result,
- optimal variability of the result,
- the optimal combination of the winnings and the amount of risk.
The essence of the maximum win rule is that from possible options risk capital investments, the option is chosen that gives the highest efficiency of the result with the minimum or acceptable risk for the investor.
The desire for the optimal combination of the size of the gain and the magnitude of the risk lies in the fact that the manager evaluates the expected values of the gain and risk and decides to invest in the event that allows him to get the expected gain and at the same time avoid a large risk. The rules for making a risk capital investment decision are supplemented by various ways of choosing a decision option. Among the latter are the choices:
- a solution option, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are known;
- a solution option, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are unknown, but there are estimates of their relative values,
- a solution option, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are unknown, but the main directions for assessing the results of capital investment are known.
In the first case, the average expected value of the rate of return on invested capital is determined for each option and the option with the highest rate of return is selected. In the second, by means of an expert assessment, the value of the probability of the conditions of economic situations is established and the average expected value of the rate of return on invested capital is calculated. In the third case, there are three directions for assessing the results of capital investment: selection of the maximum result from the minimum value; selection of the minimum risk value from the maximum risks; selection of the average value of the result. The calculation for assessing risk and choosing the optimal option for capital investment is made using mathematical methods that are studied by disciplines such as econometrics, financial management, economic analysis.
The central place in the assessment of entrepreneurial risk is occupied by the analysis and forecasting of possible losses of resources in the course of entrepreneurial activity. This does not mean the consumption of resources, objectively due to the nature and scale of entrepreneurial actions, but random, unforeseen, but potentially possible losses arising from the deviation of the real course of entrepreneurship from the intended scenario.
If a random event has a double effect on end results entrepreneurship has unfavorable and favorable consequences, then when assessing the risk, both must be equally taken into account. In other words, when determining the total possible losses, the accompanying gain should be subtracted from the calculated losses.
Losses that may be in entrepreneurial activity, it is advisable to divide into material, labor, financial, time losses, special types of losses. Material losses are manifested in additional costs not foreseen by the entrepreneurial project or direct losses of equipment, property, products, raw materials, energy, etc. In relation to each individual of the listed types of losses, its own units of measurement are used. It is most natural to measure material losses in the same units in which the quantity of a given type is measured material resources, i.e. in physical units of weight, volume, area, etc.
However, it is not possible to bring together the losses measured in different units and express them in one value. You cannot add kilograms and meters. Therefore, the calculation of losses in terms of value, in monetary units, is inevitable. For this, losses in the physical dimension are converted into a value dimension by multiplying by the price per unit of the corresponding material resource. For material resources, the cost of which is known, the losses can be immediately estimated at monetary terms... Having an estimate of the probable losses for each of the individual types of material resources in value terms, it is realistic to bring them together, while observing the rules of action with random values and their probabilities.
Labor losses represent losses of working time caused by random, unforeseen circumstances. In direct measure, labor losses are expressed in man-hours, man-days, or simply hours of working time. The translation of labor losses into value, monetary expression is carried out by multiplying the labor hours by the cost (price) of one hour.
Financial losses are direct monetary damage associated with unforeseen payments, payment of fines, payment of additional taxes, loss of funds and securities. In addition, financial losses can occur when money is not received or received from the provided sources, when debts are not repaid, the buyer does not pay for the products supplied to him, a decrease in revenue due to a decrease in prices for products and services sold. Special types of monetary damage are associated with inflation, changes in the exchange rate of the ruble, additional
etc.................

Often in economics, the factors that must be taken into account are so new and complex that there is no sufficient information about them, and the probability of a particular outcome cannot be estimated by statistical methods. Therefore, due to the lack or absence of the necessary information, it is necessary to use expert methods.

The essence of the expert assessment method consists in the rational organization of expert analysis of the problem with a quantitative assessment of judgments and processing of their results. The generalized conclusions of experts are considered a solution to the problem.

The use of expert methods is wide enough. For example, expert risk assessment is carried out by specialists of banking institutions when granting loans. Various international agencies compile ratings of risks, in particular, investment, country, political risks, ratings of investment attractiveness, and the like.

In practice, they are used individual and group (collective) expert assessments (survey).

Main purposes of use individual expert assessments:

Forecasting the course of development of events and phenomena in the future, as well as their current assessment;

Analysis and generalization of the results provided by other experts;

Drawing up scenarios of actions;

Issuance of work permits for other specialists and organizations.

Collective peer reviews are usually less subjective and decisions,

adopted on their basis have a significant likelihood of implementation.

There are three main varieties of group expert procedures :

Open discussion of the questions raised with subsequent open or closed voting;

Free speech without discussion and voting;

Closed discussion followed by closed voting or filling out expert survey questionnaires.

Expert assessment methods are divided into axiomatic and straight lines.

Axiomatic methods are based on the construction of the utility function of the subject of management. In this case, a statement is formed regarding the type of the utility function, as well as its most important features. These statements are called axioms . All information received from the subject of control is considered as a means of testing the hypothesis about the form of the utility function. In the axiomatic approach, each multicriteria solution option provides a utility score.

Direct methods are based on the fact that the type of dependence of the utility function on estimates by many criteria is set without theoretical justification, and the parameters of this dependence are either also set or directly assessed by the subject of management.

The most common direct methods are:

- The method of the weighted sum of criteria assessments. According to this method, the utility (V) a multicriteria object is calculated by the formula:

where is the weight of the i-th criterion, measured on a quantitative scale;

Assessment of the object with and -th criterion ().

- Decision Trees Method : the subject of management gives estimates of the utility and subjective probability for each of the solution options;

- Method brainstorming (see Section 3);

- Delphi method(see Section 3) .

General examination scheme includes the following main stages:

Selection of experts and formation of expert groups;

Formation of questions and preparation of questionnaires;

Working with experts;

Formation of rules for determining total scores based on the estimates of individual experts;

Analysis and processing of expert assessments.

At selection of experts and formation of expert groups , based on the objectives of the expert survey, the structure of the expert group, the number of experts and their required individual qualities are determined. That is, the requirements for the specialization and qualifications of experts, the required number of experts of each specialization and their total number in the group are determined. The quantitative and qualitative composition of experts is selected on the basis of an analysis of the breadth of the problem, the reliability of estimates, the characteristics of experts, and resource costs. Provided that experts are sufficiently reliable measurers of the degree of risk, with the increase in the number of experts, the accuracy of the results of the examination will also increase, but at the same time, the time and money spent on its conduct will increase.

At the formation of questions and the preparation of questionnaires it is necessary to follow the rules that ensure compliance with conditions conducive to the formation of an objective opinion by experts. To ensure that these conditions are met, rules for conducting a survey and organizing the work of an expert group should be developed.

Working with experts includes three stages:

Experts are involved in individually in order to clarify the model of the object, its parameters and indicators that are subject to expert assessment, to clarify the wording of questions and terminology in the questionnaires, to agree on the appropriateness of one or another form of presentation of tables of expert assessments and to clarify the expert groups;

The experts are provided with questionnaires with an explanatory letter, which describes the purpose of the work, the structure and procedure for constructing tables with examples;

After receiving the results of the survey, they are processed and analyzed.

When forming the rules for determining the total estimates for the rational use of the information received from experts, it is necessary to turn it into a form convenient for further analysis.

Expert assessments can have different scales and units of measurement (points, percentages, physical assessments, etc.).

Analysis and processing of expert assessments assumes the ordering of the information received and its presentation in a form convenient for making decisions, as well as determining the consistency of the actions of experts and the reliability of expert assessments.

An important stage of expert procedures is assessment of the consistency of expert opinions and the reliability of the expertise . The existing methods for determining the reliability of expert assessments are based on the assumption that in the case of coordination of experts' actions, the reliability of assessments is guaranteed. Most often, for this purpose, the coefficient of variation, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, and the concordance coefficient are used.

Concordance (agreement) coefficient allows you to judge the degree of agreement of the opinions of experts and the likelihood of their assessments and is determined by the formula:

(15.74)

where is the actual variance of the total (ordered) estimates provided by the experts;

Dispersion of summary (ordered) assessments provided by experts for complete consistency of opinions;

Assessment given to the ι-th property j -m expert;

The total score received by the / -th object; T - the number of evaluated objects;

NS - the number of experts;

Average total score for T facilities provided NS experts with full agreement of experts' opinions.

The value of the coefficient of concordance can vary from 0 to 1. When W = 0 - there is no consistency, that is, there is no connection between the experts' assessments; At - the consistency of experts' opinions is complete. They believe that the opinions of experts are more consistent than inconsistent.

If, in accordance with the accepted criteria, the opinions of experts can be considered agreed, then the assessments they provide are accepted and used in the process of preparing and implementing management decisions.

Example 15.24.

It is necessary to determine the degree of agreement of experts' opinions based on the results of their assessment of seven investment objects, which are given in Table. 15.14.

table 15.14

Expert appraisals of investment objects

Investment object number	Expert estimates, points	Assessment of the object with full consistency of expert opinions, points
Investment object number

solution

1. Let us determine the total ranks of importance for each investment object according to expert estimates:

Object "1": 4 + 6 + 4 + 4 + 3 = 21 points;

Object "2" 3 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 4 = 15 points;

Object "3": 2 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 2 = 9 points;

Object "4" 6 + 5 + 6 + 5 + 6 = 28 points;

Object "5" 1 + 1 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 7 points;

Object "6" 5 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 5 = 25 points;

Object "7" 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 = 35 points.

So the highest total rank of importance (35 points) has the investment object "7", the smallest (7 points) - the object "5". That is, investing in facility "7" is the most expedient.

2. The total ranks of the importance of investment objects, provided that the opinions of experts are fully consistent:

Object "1": 5 ∙ 5 = 25 points;

Object "2" 3 5 = 15 points;

Object "C": 2 5 = 10 points;

Object "4" 6 5 = 30 points;

Object "5": 15 = 5 points;

Object "b": 4 5 = 20 points;

Object "7" 7 5 = 35 points.

With complete agreement of opinions, the highest total rank of importance (35 points) will have the object of examination "7", the smallest (5 points) - the object "5". That is, the most expedient is the investment in the object "7".

3. Determine the average value of the total assessment:

4. The actual variance of the total assessments of experts:

5. Dispersion of total estimates with full agreement of expert opinions:

6. The coefficient of concordance is determined by the formula (15.74):

or 90%.

Since the value of the coefficient of concordance (0.9) is higher than 0.5, the opinions of experts can be considered consistent, and the estimates they provide can be used to develop and make management decisions.

2.3. Expert methods of risk assessment

The general scheme of expert interviews includes the following main stages:

1) selection of experts and formation of expert groups;

2) the formation of questions and the preparation of questionnaires;

3) work with experts;

4) the formation of rules for determining total assessments based on the assessments of individual experts;

5) analysis and processing of expert assessments.

At the first stage, based on the objectives of the expert survey, questions are resolved regarding the structure of the expert group, the number of experts and their individual qualities, i.e. the requirements for the specialization and qualifications of experts, the required number of experts of each specialization and their total number in the group are determined.

Estimates of the size of the expert group are based on the following considerations.

The size of the group should not be small, since in this case the meaning of the formation of expert assessments determined by the group of specialists will be lost. In addition, peer reviews would be heavily influenced by the assessment of each expert.

With an increase in the group of experts, although these shortcomings are eliminated, there is a danger of new ones emerging. So, with a very large number of experts, the assessment of each of them separately has almost no effect on the group assessment. Moreover, the increase in the number of the expert group does not always bring an increase in the reliability of estimates. Often, the expansion of a group of experts is possible only at the expense of low-skilled specialists, which in turn can lead to a decrease in the reliability of group assessments. Along with the increase in the number of experts, the difficulties associated with coordinating the work of the group and processing the results of the survey are increasing. It should be noted that when finding estimates by an expert method, in addition to the error introduced by the lack of information about the object under study and the insufficient competence of experts, an error of a completely different kind is also possible, due to the interest of experts in the results of the examination, which will certainly affect their reliability. The presence of such errors can significantly distort the estimates.

The elimination of these shortcomings is achieved by using the appropriate methods and, first of all, through the correct organization of the expert procedure, from the selection of experts to the processing of their opinions.

The characteristic features of the methods of expert assessments and models of their implementation as a tool for the scientific solution of complex non-formalized problems are, firstly, the scientifically grounded organization of all stages of the examination, ensuring the efficiency of work at each of the stages and, secondly, the use of quantitative methods as in the organization of the examination, and when assessing the judgments of experts on the basis of formal group processing of the results of their opinions. These features distinguish the methods of expert assessments from the usual, long-known expertise used in various spheres of human activity.

When selecting experts, the limitation concerning the correspondence of the goals of experts to the goals of the expert survey should be taken into account, i.e. it is necessary to establish whether there is a tendency for individual experts to assess the events in question in a biased manner. To do this, it is desirable to identify potential possible goals of experts that contradict the goals of obtaining objective results.

Analyzing the previous activities of experts, it is necessary to find out the existence of reasons that lead to the desire to overestimate or underestimate the assessments so as to influence the group assessments in the direction desirable for themselves or for other persons.

The main methods of expert assessments are as follows:

1) methods of collective work of the expert group;

2) methods of obtaining the individual opinion of the members of the expert group.

Teamwork methods the expert group involves the formation of a common opinion in the course of a joint discussion of the consequences of entrepreneurial activity. These methods are sometimes referred to as direct collective opinion methods. These include brainstorming, scripting, game play, meeting and trial techniques.

Methods for obtaining individual opinion members of the expert group are based on a preliminary collection of information from experts interviewed independently of each other, with the subsequent processing of the data obtained. These methods include the methods of a questionnaire survey, interviews, Delphi.

The means of collecting information from experts is questionnaire- a questionnaire that must meet a number of requirements such as simplicity and unambiguous understanding of the text, brevity of presentation, completeness of presentation, illustrativeness, uniformity.

The survey of experts is carried out in accordance with the selected method of expert assessments. Among the methods of expert assessments as a scientific tool for difficult-to-formalize tasks of analyzing entrepreneurial risk, the Delphi method, or the Delphic oracle method, is most acceptable. This method represents an iterative questionnaire procedure. At the same time, the requirement for the absence of personal contacts between experts and providing them with complete information on all assessment results after each round of the survey is observed, while maintaining the anonymity of assessments, argumentation and criticism.

The procedure of the method includes several consecutive stages (rounds) of the survey. At the first stage, an individual survey of experts is conducted, usually in the form of questionnaires. Experts give answers without reasoning. Then the results of the survey are processed, and the collective opinion of a group of experts is formed, the arguments in favor of various judgments are identified and generalized. At the second stage, all the information is communicated to the experts, and they are asked to revise the assessments and, if they disagree with the collective judgment, explain its reasons. New grades are processed again and the next step is carried out. Practice shows that after three or four stages, the experts' answers stabilize, and at this point the survey procedure should be stopped.

The advantage of the Delphi method is the use of feedback during the survey, which significantly increases the objectivity and reliability of expert assessments of the degree of risk. However, this method requires a significant amount of time to implement the entire multi-stage procedure.

The processing of the results of the obtained expert information is determined by the method of obtaining it and the type of presentation (qualitative, quantitative). When processing expert information, the following tasks are set to assess: the collective opinion of the expert group; consistency of expert opinions; competence of experts. When solving the first problem, if there is the necessary information potential, methods of mathematical statistics based on data averaging are used. If the information potential is insufficient, the processing of the results is based on the methods qualitative analysis.

If there is information potential, the collective opinion of the expert group can be expressed in the following forms:

1) quantitative estimates in physical units of measurement or in the form of a ratio;

2) scores;

3) pairwise comparisons;

4) groupings (sorting);

5) ranking.

The rules for interviewing experts contain a number of provisions that are mandatory for everyone. These rules should ensure that conditions are observed that are conducive to the formation of an objective opinion by experts. These conditions include:

1) the independence of experts' formation of their own opinion about the evaluated events;

2) the convenience of working with the proposed questionnaires (questions are formulated in generally accepted terms and should exclude any semantic ambiguity, etc.);

3) logical correspondence of questions to the structure of the object of the survey;

4) acceptable time spent on answering the questionnaire, convenient time for receiving questions and issuing answers;

5) maintaining the anonymity of responses for members of the expert group;

6) providing experts with the required information.

To ensure that these conditions are met, rules for conducting a survey and organizing the work of an expert group should be developed.

Depending on the nature of the object under study, on the degree of its formalization and the possibility of attracting the necessary experts, the procedure for working with them may be different, but basically it consists of the following 3 stages.

At the first stage, experts are involved on an individual basis in order to clarify the object model, its parameters and indicators subject to expert assessment; clarify the wording of questions and terminology in the questionnaires; agree on the appropriateness of this or that form of presentation of tables of expert assessments; clarify expert groups.

At the second stage, the experts are sent questionnaires with an explanatory letter, which describes the purpose of the work, the structure and procedure for constructing tables with examples.

If it is possible to bring experts together, then the goals and objectives of the questionnaire, as well as all questions related to the questionnaire, can be stated orally. Required condition such a form of an expert survey - the subsequent self-completion of the questionnaire, subject to the rules of the survey.

The third stage of working with experts is carried out after receiving the survey results in the process of processing and analyzing the results.

At this stage, experts in the form of a consultation usually receive all the necessary information that is required to refine the data and their final analysis.

Rational use of information received from experts is possible if it is converted into a form convenient for further analysis aimed at preparing and making decisions.

There are several ways to use a panel of experts. One of them (the method of assessing agreement) is that each expert gives an assessment independently of the others, and then, using certain techniques, these assessments are combined into one generalized (agreed).

For example, if we are talking about the probability of a risk event (p) and the i-th expert indicates the number pi for this probability, then the simplest way to obtain a generalized estimate is to calculate the average probability:

where m is the number of experts participating in the examination.

In the Delphi method, the median of the estimates of the last round of the expert survey is taken as a generalized opinion.

You can also calculate the weighted average value of the probability if you try to take into account the weight (competence) of the expert himself, which is determined on the basis of previous activities (the number of correct answers to the total), or on the basis of other methods - self-assessment by an expert of his knowledge in the field questions asked, qualifications, position, academic title, etc .:

where h is the weight attributed to the i-th expert.

There are various methods for assessing the competence of an expert, the choice of which is determined both by the nature of the problem being solved and by the possibilities of conducting a specific expert survey. In the general case, the values of the weight attributed to the i-th expert are interpreted as the probability of giving him a reliable estimate. In this case 0< h < 1.

Depending on the specifics of the expert survey, the object of research and the methodology used for processing expert data, the assessments given by experts can have a different scale of measurement: from 0 to 1, from 0 to 10, from 0 to 100. Thus, the expertise we know of determining the BERI index for insurance risk assessment uses a scale from 0 to 100 points. At the same time, there is no fundamental difference in the measurement scales; the choice of one or another of them is largely determined by the taste of the researcher conducting the expert survey. The scale of measurement adopted may to some extent influence the choice of methods of analysis and processing of expert opinions.

When analyzing the collected expert data in accordance with the objectives of the study and the adopted models, it is necessary to present the information received from experts in a form convenient for making decisions (to arrange objects - options, indicators, factors, etc.), as well as to determine the consistency of expert actions and the reliability of expert assessments.

So, for example, the risks identified in the process of qualitative analysis must be presented in the order of their importance (the degree of their possible influence on the level of losses) or risk reduction options - in the order of their preference, etc.

There are a number of sequencing methods, each of which has its own advantages and disadvantages, as well as an area of effective application. The most common of these are ranking, direct assessment, sequential comparison, pairwise comparison.

An important point of expert procedures is the assessment of the consistency of experts' actions and the reliability of expert assessments.

As noted, existing ways Determinations of the reliability of expert assessments are based on the assumption that in the case of coordination of expert actions, the reliability of assessments is guaranteed.

Most often, for these purposes, the coefficient of concordance (agreement) is used, the value of which makes it possible to judge the degree of agreement of the opinions of experts and, as a consequence, the reliability of their estimates. The concordance factor (W) is determined from the expression:

where: q 2? - the actual variance of the total (ordered) estimates given by experts;

q 2 max is the variance of the total (ordered) estimates in the case when the opinions of the experts completely coincide.

The value of the coefficient of concordance can vary from 0 to 1. At W = 0 there is no consistency; there is no connection between the assessments of various experts. At W = 1, the consistency of experts' opinions is complete.

To make a decision on the use of estimates obtained from experts, it is necessary that the concordance coefficient be greater than the specified (normative) value. You can take W = 0.5. It is believed that when W is greater than 0.5, the actions of experts are more consistent than not coordinated.

Let us consider the determination of the concordance factor using the following simplified example. Let the qualitative analysis identify 5 types of risk that the project may be exposed to during its implementation. The experts are faced with the task of ranking these risks (in order of their importance) according to the degree of their possible impact on the level of losses.

In general, the coefficient of concordance is determined from the expression:

where a is the estimate assigned to the i-th object j-th an expert;

m is the number of evaluated objects;

n is the number of experts.

Criteria are also used to assess the likelihood that the experts' agreement was not the result of random variations in their opinions.

If, in accordance with the accepted criteria, the opinions of experts can be considered agreed, then the assessments given by them are accepted and used in the process of preparing and implementing management decisions.

It is known that the average value of the total score for m objects assigned by n experts is 1 / 2n (m + l).

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Introduction 3

1. Analysis and assessment of risks 5

1.1. Risk Areas and Risk Curve 7

1.2. Expert judgment method 12

2. Analysis of external risk at the research and production enterprise "Samara Horizons" 15

2.2. Stages of modeling by method 25

Conclusion 35

References 37

Introduction

Risk is inherent in any area of economic activity. The problem of risk is of particular importance in entrepreneurship, where intensive changes in the environment of a business entity necessitate a prompt and energetic response to the transformations that come in business. In this case, it is necessary to take into account the industry specifics that determine the risk factors, the degree of their manifestation and significance.

The lack of scientifically based approaches to the analysis and assessment of the risk of scientific and industrial enterprises leads to such undesirable consequences as loss of profits, unrealized stocks of goods, reduced investment efficiency, the occurrence of losses during the conclusion of transactions, a reduction in the resource base, etc.

The works of domestic and foreign scientists are devoted to the analysis and assessment of risks in the activities of enterprises. A significant contribution to the development of these issues was made by economists: V.A.Abchuk, A.P. Algin, K.M. Arginbaev, M.I.Bakanov, I.T.Balabanov, V.V.Bokov, V.A. Borovkova, E.S. Vasilchuk, V.V. Glushchenko, P.G. Grabovoy, V.M. Granaturov, A.M. Dubrov, B.A. Lagosha, A.A. Pervozvansky, B.A. Raizberg, V. T. Sevruk, A. A. Spivak, V. A. Chernov, A.S. Shapkin, A.D. Sheremet and others. Among foreign scientists, the following works can be noted: W. Barton, T. Backkai, E. Voghan, M. Green, S. Williams, K. Redhead and others. V. A. Borovkova, A. M, Omarova, V. M. Granaturova, E.V. Seregina, G.A. Taktarova, G.V. Chernova, etc.

However, despite a significant amount of research in the field of risk analysis and active searches for ways to objectively assess the magnitude of risk, many methodological and methodological issues of this important problem have not yet been resolved. So, in particular, until now there is no consensus on the nature and content of the economic risk of enterprises, criteria and indicators (general and specific) for assessing economic risk have not been substantiated, there is no scientifically substantiated classification of factors that determine economic risks, in particular external risks of the enterprise in the market conditions of functioning.

The need to increase the risk assessment of an enterprise and, in particular, a research and production enterprise in market conditions predetermined the relevance of the research topic.

The purpose and objectives of the study. The purpose of the course work is to improve the theoretical foundations and the development of methodological provisions for the analysis of external risk and an expert method for assessing the risk of research and production enterprises in market conditions of operation to improve the efficiency of their development.

To achieve this goal in the course work set and solved the following tasks:

Analysis of risk sources for scientific and industrial enterprises and their classification;

Revealing the characteristics of risks at research and production enterprises and their assessment in modern conditions;

Development of a methodological approach to risk assessment at research and production enterprises using the expert method.

The subject of research is the analysis of external risk. The analysis of external risk is understood as an assessment of the degree of influence of the external environment on the activities of a research and production enterprise.

The research and production enterprise Closed Joint Stock Company "Samara Horizons" was chosen as the object of research.

The theoretical and methodological basis of the course work was the works of domestic and foreign researchers.

Research information base. The data of ZAO NPP Samara Horizons were used as the initial information during the research.

1. Analysis and assessment of risks

In the conditions of the formation of market relations, the role and significance of individual elements of the management process has radically changed, therefore, the theoretical approaches to their analysis, assessment and organization at the enterprise also change.

The number of unresolved problems in the management of economic and production risks at industrial enterprises has significantly increased at the present time with the emergence of a competitive environment.

At the same time, it is important to take into account that any of the objects and subjects of production activity is exposed to the systemic impact of risks of various hierarchical levels: geopolitical, political, social, economic, financial, industrial, commercial, technogenic.

It is possible to reduce the risk, first of all, by careful preliminary study, calculation of operations, the choice of a rational, less dangerous option of action. Correct accounting of risk factors and rational risk management at an enterprise contributes to its successful market activity, while other enterprises, whose management does not pay due attention to risks, in a similar market situation, inevitably turn out to be unprofitable. Therefore, the issues of theory and practice of risk assessment and management have acquired particular relevance at the present time.

The purpose of the risk analysis is to provide potential partners with the necessary data to make decisions about the advisability of participating in the project and to provide measures to protect against possible financial losses. Risk analysis is performed in the sequence shown in Fig. one.

Figure 1. Sequence of risk analysis.

Risk losses are independent of each other;

A loss in one direction from the “risk portfolio” does not necessarily increase the likelihood of a loss in another (with the exception of force majeure circumstances);

The maximum possible damage should not exceed the financial capabilities of the participant.

Risk analysis can be divided into two mutually complementary types: qualitative and quantitative. A qualitative analysis can be relatively simple, its main task is to determine the risk factors, the stages of work, during the implementation of which the risk arises, that is, to establish the potential areas of risk, and then to identify all possible risks. Quantitative risk analysis, that is, the numerical determination of the size of individual risks and the risk of the project as a whole, is a more complex problem. All factors that in one way or another affect the growth of the degree of risk in the project can be conditionally divided into objective and subjective.

1.1. Risk Zones and Risk Curve

Figure 2. Risk areas.

The area in which losses are not expected, that is, where the economic result of economic activity is positive, is called a risk-free zone. The zone of acceptable risk is an area within which the value of probable losses does not exceed the expected profit and, therefore, commercial activity has economic feasibility. The border of the acceptable risk zone corresponds to the level of losses equal to the estimated profit. The critical risk zone is the area of possible losses exceeding the expected profit up to the value of the total estimated revenue (the sum of costs and profits). Here, the entrepreneur risks not only not receiving any income, but also incurring direct losses in the amount of all costs incurred.

The area of catastrophic risk is the area of probable losses that exceed the critical level and can reach a value equal to the organization's own capital. A catastrophic risk can lead an organization or entrepreneur to collapse and bankruptcy. In addition, the category of catastrophic risk (regardless of the amount of property damage) should include the risk associated with the threat to life or health of people and the occurrence of economic disasters. A visual representation of the level of commercial risk is given by a graphical representation of the dependence of the probability of losses on their value - the risk curve (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Risk curve.

The construction of such a curve is based on the hypothesis that profit as a random variable is subject to the normal distribution law and assumes the following assumptions.

1. The most likely profit, equal to the calculated value - Ex. The probability (Bp) of obtaining such a profit is maximum and the value of P can be considered the mathematical expectation of profit. The probability of making a profit, more or less than the calculated one, decreases monotonically as the deviations grow.

2. Loss is considered to be a decrease in profit (ΔП) in comparison with the calculated value. If the real profit is equal to P, then ΔP = Pr - P.

The assumptions made are, to a certain extent, controversial and are not always true for all types of risks, but on the whole they fairly accurately reflect the most general patterns of change in commercial risk and make it possible to construct a probability distribution curve for profit losses, which is called the risk curve (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. Curve of probability distribution of profit loss.

Creation of a predictive model;

Determination of risk variables;

Determination of the probability distribution of the selected variables and determination of the range of possible values for each of them;

Establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;

Model runs;

Analysis of the results.

Risk variables. These are variables that are critical to the viability of the project, that is, even small deviations from its intended value negatively affect the project. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyzes are used to select variables. Sensitivity analysis measures the reaction of project results to changes in a particular project variable.

In practice, the most popular are the following risk analysis methods:

statistical;
assessing the feasibility of costs;
expert assessments;
analytical;
method of using analogs;
estimates and;
analysis of the consequences of risk accumulation;
combined method.

Let's consider in more detail the main methods of risk analysis and their features.

Statistical risk analysis method

Statistical risk analysis method it is used when the company has a sufficient amount of analytical and statistical information regarding the object of analysis. The essence of this method lies in the fact that to calculate the probability of losses, all historical data on the effectiveness of the analyzed operations by the company in the past are analyzed.

The advantage of the statistical method of risk analysis is that it allows you to analyze and evaluate various scenarios for the development of events and take into account various factors risk within one approach. The disadvantage is this method is the need to apply probabilistic characteristics.

In practice, the following are used statistical methods risk analysis:

assessment of the likelihood of execution;
analysis of the likely distribution of the flow of payments;
decision trees;
simulation of risks.

Method for assessing the likelihood of execution allows you to give a simplified statistical assessment of the probability of execution of any decision by calculating the share of completed and unfulfilled decisions in the total amount of decisions made.

Method for analyzing probabilistic distributions of payment flows allows for a known distribution of probabilities for each element of the flow of payments to estimate possible deviations of the values of the flow of payments from the expected. The flow with the smallest variation is considered less risky.

Decision trees usually used to analyze the risks of events that have a foreseeable or reasonable number of development scenarios. They are especially useful in situations where decisions made at one time or another depend on decisions made earlier.

Simulation modeling- one of the most powerful methods for analyzing the economic system. It is understood as the process of conducting experiments on a computer with mathematical models of complex systems of the real world. Simulation is used when it is unreasonable, costly, and / or not feasible to conduct real experiments, for example, with economic systems. Gathering the information you need to make decisions is often costly. In such cases, the missing actual data are replaced by the values obtained during the simulation experiment.

Cost Feasibility Analysis Method

The essence cost-benefit analysis method lies in the fact that in the course of the company's activities, the costs of each direction, as well as the costs of individual elements, have a different level of risk. Determining the level of risk by analyzing the feasibility of costs is focused on identifying potential risk areas. This, in turn, provides an opportunity to identify bottlenecks in terms of risks, and then develop ways to eliminate them.

The cost expediency method allows you to determine the critical volume of production or sales, i.e. the lower limit of the size of output at which the profit is zero. Production of products in volumes less than the critical one only brings losses. The critical volume of production must be assessed during the development of new products and with a decrease in product output caused by a drop in demand, a reduction in the supply of materials and components, stricter environmental requirements, and other reasons.

Excess costs can be due to one of four main factors, or a combination of both:

initial underestimation of value;
changes in design boundaries;
the difference in productivity;
an increase in the original cost.

These major factors can be detailed. Based on the model checklist, a detailed checklist can be drawn up for a specific project or its elements.

Some researchers distinguish three indicators of a firm's financial stability in order to determine the level of risk of funds:

excess or lack of own funds;
excess or lack of own, medium- and long-term borrowed sources for the formation of reserves and costs;
excess or shortage of the total value of the main sources for the formation of reserves and costs.

Expert judgment method

Method for determining the level of risk by expert assessments is more subjective (in comparison with other methods). This subjectivity is a consequence of the fact that the group of experts carrying out the risk analysis expresses its own subjective judgments both about the past situation (an accomplished event) and about the prospects for its development.

Most often, the method of expert assessments is used when there is an insufficient amount of information or when determining the level of risk in such areas of activity that have no analogues.

In a generalized form, the essence of this method lies in the fact that the company distinguishes a certain group risks and considers how they can affect its activities. This consideration boils down to scoring with respect to the likelihood of a particular type of risk, as well as the degree of its impact on the company's activities.

Analytical method of risk analysis

The analytical method for constructing the risk curve is the most difficult, since the elements of game theory that underlie it are available only to very narrow specialists. The most commonly used subspecies analytical method — model sensitivity analysis.

Analytical method of risk analysis is carried out in several stages.

On the first stage preparation for analytical processing of information is carried out, which contains:

determination of the key parameter, relative to which the sensitivity is assessed (, etc.);
the choice of factors that affect the activities of the organization and, accordingly, the key parameter (, the state of the economy, etc.);
calculation of the values of the key parameter at different stages of the project (purchase of raw materials, production, sale, transportation, capital construction etc.);
the sequences of costs and receipts formed in this way financial resources make it possible to determine not only the general economic efficiency investigated direction of activity, but also to determine its value at each stage.

On the second stage diagrams are built, reflecting the dependence of the selected resulting indicators on the value of the initial parameters. Comparing the obtained diagrams with each other, it is possible to determine the so-called key indicators , which have the most impact on the assessment of the profitability of the project.

On the third stage the critical values of the key parameters are determined. Most in a simple way in this case, it is the calculation of the critical point or, reflecting the minimum allowable volume of production of products or the provision of services to cover costs.

On the fourth stage Based on the previously obtained critical values of key parameters and factors, an analysis is made of whether they are influenced by possible ways to improve the efficiency and stability of the organization's work, i.e. are there ways to reduce the risks.

Model sensitivity analysis... Model sensitivity analysis consists of the following steps:

selection of the main key indicator, that is, the parameter by which the sensitivity is assessed. Such indicators can serve as: internal rate of return, or net present value;
choice of factors (inflation rate, degree of state of the economy, etc.);
calculation of the values of the key indicator at various stages of the project: search, design, construction, installation and commissioning of equipment, the process of return on investment.

The sequence of expenses and receipts formed in this way makes it possible to determine financial flows for each point in time, that is, to determine performance indicators.

First, diagrams are built, reflecting the dependence of the selected resulting indicators on the value of the initial parameters. By comparing the resulting charts with each other, you can determine the key indicators that most affect the project evaluation.

Then the critical (for the project) values of the key parameters are determined. The easiest way to calculate the “break-even point”, reflecting the minimum allowable volume of services, at which the project does not bring profit, but does not turn out to be unprofitable.

If the project is financed through loans, then the critical value will be the minimum rate at which the project will not be able to pay off the debt. In the future, a variant of permissible values can be obtained, within which the project turns out to be effective (in terms of profitability) from a financial and economic point of view.

Sensitivity analysis allows specialists to take into account the design analysis. If the project turns out to be sensitive to changes in the volume of production of the project, then more attention should be paid to the training program for personnel and management, as well as other measures to increase productivity.

However, sensitivity analysis has two major drawbacks:

it is not comprehensive because it is not designed to take into account all possible circumstances;
he does not specify the likelihood of alternative projects.

Method of using analogs

When analyzing the risk of a new project, data on the impact of adverse risk factors on other projects can be very useful.

The essence method of using analogs lies in the fact that when analyzing the degree of risk of a certain area of activity of a subject, it is advisable to use data on the development of the same similar areas in the past.

Analysis of past risk factors is carried out based on information obtained from various sources. The data obtained in this way is processed in order to identify the dependencies between the planned results of activities and taking into account potential risks.

The expediency of using this method lies in the fact that if it is necessary to identify the degree of risk from any innovative direction of the company, when there is no strict basis for comparison, it is better to know past experience, even if it does not correspond to modern conditions.

Some caution should be exercised when using the analogy method. Even in appropriate cases of failed project completion, it is very difficult to create the prerequisites for future analysis, i.e. prepare an exhaustive and realistic set of possible scenarios for project failures. The fact is that for most of the negative consequences, certain features are characteristic.